Arosa v Llanera prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Arosa 4–1 Llanera AROSA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arosa win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.532

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.508

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arosa win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arosa was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Arosa v Llanera
7′Arosa score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–19–16
7′We published Arosa at 41%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–16
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Arosa 1–0 Llanera
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Arosa win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
16′Arosa find the net on 15′. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–5
16′We published Arosa at 41%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–5
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Arosa 2–0 Llanera
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Arosa win: 41% at kick-off, 86% now
38′We published Arosa at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Arosa win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Arosa 2–0 Llanera
46′SECOND HALF Arosa 2–0 Llanera
48′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 92–7–2
60′A goal for Llanera on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–20–5
60′We published Arosa at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Arosa 2–1 Llanera
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Arosa win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
70′We published Arosa at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Arosa win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
80′Arosa score on 79′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′We published Arosa at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Arosa 3–1 Llanera
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Arosa win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
84′We published Arosa at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′Arosa find the net on 85′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Arosa 4–1 Llanera
87′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Arosa 4–1 Llanera
FTArosa 4–1 Llanera · Arosa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arosa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arosa 41%, draw 24%, Llanera 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Arosa v LlaneraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arosa win41%

Draw24%

Llanera win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arosa

Llanera

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Llanera	6	−3	7
17	Arosa	6	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arosa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Arosa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arosa v Llanera~~1.57 – 1.43

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~17 v 13

~~The market · Arosa win~~42% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arosa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arosa win	41%	42%	−1
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Llanera win	35%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
Arosa or draw	65%	69%	−4
Arosa clean sheet	25%	–	–
Llanera clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 7.1 5.1 2.5 1 7.7 11.1 7.7 3.7 2 6.1 8.4 6.0 2.9 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arosa down, Llanera across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arosa at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Llanera away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Arosa, 1.43 for Llanera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LLA 3–0 ARO · ARO 0–0 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

AROSA

DLDLDD2–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 0–0 · 2–2

LLANERA

LLLWDW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	6	+7	14
2	Eibar II	7	+7	14
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	+6	13
4	Sestao River	6	+4	13
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
8	Real Oviedo II	6	−1	10
9	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8
13	Llanera	6	−3	7
14	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6
15	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
17	Arosa	6	−7	4
18	Racing Santander II	7	−7	4