Arosa v Bergantiños prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Arosa 2–2 Bergantiños BERGANTIÑOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bergantiños win~~46%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.872

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bergantiños win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bergantiños was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 30–24–46
1′KICK-OFF Arosa v Bergantiños
2′Much as we predicted: Bergantiños was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 30–24–46
45′HALF-TIME Arosa 0–0 Bergantiños
46′SECOND HALF Arosa 0–0 Bergantiños
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Arosa 1–0 Bergantiños
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Arosa 1–1 Bergantiños
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Arosa 1–2 Bergantiños
90′⚽ GOAL · 97' Arosa 2–2 Bergantiños
FTFULL TIME Arosa 2–2 Bergantiños
FTArosa 2–2 Bergantiños · Bergantiños win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Arosa win30%

Draw24%

Bergantiños win46%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Arosa

Bergantiños

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
17	Arosa	5	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bergantiños winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

46% The market41%

Us46%

~~Market~~41%

We make Bergantiños a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bergantiños win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arosa win	30%	30%	0
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Bergantiños win	46%	41%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	48%	+8
Both teams to score	58%	53%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	71%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	34%	26%	+9
Arosa or draw	54%	59%	−5
Arosa clean sheet	20%	–	–
Bergantiños clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 8.5 7.1 4.0 1 6.7 11.2 8.9 5.0 2.1 2 4.5 7.1 5.8 3.2 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arosa down, Bergantiños across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arosa at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bergantiños away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Arosa, 1.66 for Bergantiños. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARO 1–1 BER · BER 2–1 ARO

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

AROSA

DDLDLD1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 0–0

BERGANTIÑOS

WDWWWW5–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bergantiños	5	+7	13
2	Eibar II	6	+7	13
3	Sestao River	6	+4	13
4	Deportivo Alavés II	5	+6	12
5	Portugalete	6	0	10
6	Ourense CF	6	−2	10
7	Basconia	6	+1	9
8	Gernika	5	+7	8
9	Amorebieta	6	0	7
10	Real Oviedo II	5	−2	7
11	Llanera	6	−3	7
12	Atlético Astorga	6	+2	6
13	Marino de Luanco	6	−4	6
14	Coruxo	5	−1	5
15	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	−4	5
16	Compostela	5	−3	4
17	Arosa	5	−7	3
18	Racing Santander II	5	−8	1