Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1
Back

Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 › Amorebieta v Portugalete

Spain flag

Amorebieta v Portugalete

Amorebieta
1–2Full time
Portugalete

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02
Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete AMOREBIETA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Amorebieta win43%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.787
The market’s Brier score0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Amorebieta win at 43%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Amorebieta was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
  3. 9′Much as we predicted: Amorebieta was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
  4. 24′Amorebieta ahead on 14′ through Guillermo. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–8
  5. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  6. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  8. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  9. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  10. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  11. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  12. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  13. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  14. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  15. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  16. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  17. 32′Amorebieta ahead on 14′ through Guillermo. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
  18. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  19. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  20. 45′We published Amorebieta at 43%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Amorebieta 1–0 Portugalete
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Amorebieta 1–0 Portugalete
  23. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
  24. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
  25. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
  26. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
  27. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Amorebieta 1–1 Portugalete
  28. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
  29. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Amorebieta win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
  30. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete
  31. 86′⚽ GOAL · 14' Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete · Guillermo
  32. 86′⚽ GOAL · 55' Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete · J. Lopez
  33. 86′⚽ GOAL · 80' Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete · J. Lopez
  34. 89′⚽ GOAL · 14' Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete · Guillermo
  35. 89′⚽ GOAL · 55' Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete · J. Lopez
  36. 89′⚽ GOAL · 80' Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete · J. Lopez
  37. FTFULL TIME Amorebieta 1–2 Portugalete
  38. FTAmorebieta 1–2 Portugalete · Amorebieta win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Amorebieta win43%
Draw28%
Portugalete win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Campo Municipal de Urritxe

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · amorebieta winPublished 10 Oct 17:01
43% The market44%
Us43%
Market44%

We make Amorebieta a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:2010 OCT 14:24
Our probability · amorebieta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Amorebieta win43%44%−1
Draw28%28%0
Portugalete win28%27%+1
Over 2.5 goals39%43%−4
Both teams to score44%49%−5
Over 1.5 goals66%67%−2
Over 3.5 goals19%23%−4
Amorebieta or draw72%73%−1
Amorebieta clean sheet38%––
Portugalete clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%
0123450 11.1 10.1 5.0 1 13.3 12.9 6.2 2.0 2 8.6 8.1 3.9 3 3.7 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Amorebieta down, Portugalete across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

AMOREBIETA

DLWLW2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

PORTUGALETE

WDWLL1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bergantiños5+713
2Eibar II5+712
3Deportivo Alavés II5+612
4Sestao River5+412
5Ourense CF5+210
6Gernika5+78
7Basconia5+18
8Amorebieta5+17
9Portugalete5−17
10Real Oviedo II5−27
11Marino de Luanco5−26
12Coruxo5−15
13Compostela5−34
14Gimnástica Torrelavega5−44
15Llanera5−54
16Atlético Astorga5−23
17Arosa5−73
18Racing Santander II5−81

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.