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Amorebieta v Coruxo

Amorebieta

2–1Full time

Coruxo

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Amorebieta 2–1 Coruxo AMOREBIETA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Amorebieta win~~39%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.423

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amorebieta win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Amorebieta was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31
1′KICK-OFF Amorebieta v Coruxo
14′Coruxo find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
14′We said Amorebieta at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Amorebieta 0–1 Coruxo
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Amorebieta win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Coruxo win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Amorebieta win 37%)
28′A red card for Coruxo on 27′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 12–23–65
28′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Coruxo
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
32′A goal for Amorebieta on 32′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–38–28
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Amorebieta 1–1 Coruxo
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Amorebieta win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Coruxo win 66%)
45′HALF-TIME Amorebieta 1–1 Coruxo
46′SECOND HALF Amorebieta 1–1 Coruxo
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Amorebieta win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
54′We said Amorebieta at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–50–23
59′Amorebieta score on 59′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Amorebieta 2–1 Coruxo
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Amorebieta win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Amorebieta win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 54%)
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Amorebieta win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
61′We published Amorebieta at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–17–3
63′58′: J. Etxaniz on the scoresheet for Amorebieta, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–17–3
72′We published Amorebieta at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Amorebieta win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
79′We published Amorebieta at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
86′We published Amorebieta at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Amorebieta win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Amorebieta 2–1 Coruxo
FTAmorebieta 2–1 Coruxo · Amorebieta win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Amorebieta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Amorebieta 39%, draw 29%, Coruxo 31%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Amorebieta v CoruxoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Amorebieta win39%

Draw29%

Coruxo win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

VenueCampo Municipal de Urritxe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amorebieta

Coruxo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · amorebieta winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market47%

Us39%

~~Market~~47%

We make Amorebieta a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Amorebieta v Coruxo~~1.18 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~7 v 12

~~The market · Amorebieta win~~47% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Amorebieta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amorebieta win	39%	47%	−8
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Coruxo win	31%	25%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	23%	−5
Amorebieta or draw	69%	75%	−6
Amorebieta clean sheet	37%	–	–
Coruxo clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.7 11.2 5.8 1 13.0 13.3 6.6 2.3 2 7.7 7.7 3.9 3 3.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amorebieta down, Coruxo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Amorebieta at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Coruxo away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Amorebieta, 1.01 for Coruxo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

AMOREBIETA

LWLWLW0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

CORUXO

DLDLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Alavés II	8	+10	17
2	Bergantiños	8	+9	17
3	Eibar II	8	+8	17
4	Sestao River	7	+5	16
5	Portugalete	7	0	11
6	Compostela	7	+1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	+1	10
8	Ourense CF	7	−3	10
9	Real Oviedo II	7	−4	10
10	Gernika	7	+6	9
11	Basconia	7	−1	9
12	Coruxo	7	−1	8
13	Arosa	7	−4	7
14	Llanera	7	−6	7
15	Atlético Astorga	7	−1	6
16	Marino de Luanco	7	−5	6
17	Racing Santander II	8	−7	5
18	Gimnástica Torrelavega	7	−8	5