Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 2 › Villarreal II v Teruel

Back
Spain flag

Villarreal II v Teruel

Villarreal II
2–0Full time
Teruel

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio de la Ceramica

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01
Villarreal II 2–0 Teruel VILLARREAL II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Villarreal II win60%
The market said72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.252
The market’s Brier score0.120

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Villarreal II win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Villarreal II 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–26–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Villarreal II v Teruel
  4. 24′We said Villarreal II at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
  5. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Villarreal II 1–0 Teruel
  6. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
  7. 26′GOAL DISALLOWED · 26' Villarreal II
  8. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 52% now
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  10. 36′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–37–15
  11. 45′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Villarreal II 0–0 Teruel
  13. 46′HALF-TIME Villarreal II 0–0 Teruel
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Villarreal II · On: F. Viveros · Off: M. Barry
  15. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Villarreal II win 41%)
  16. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
  17. 54′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–13
  18. 55′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Villarreal II 1–0 Teruel
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 87% now
  21. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Villarreal II win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 11%)
  22. 56′55′: A. Arguigue Safsati on the scoresheet for Villarreal II, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
  23. 58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' Villarreal II
  24. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 36% now
  25. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Villarreal II win 36%)
  26. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' C. Tidiane Thiam · Villarreal II
  27. 61′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–54–12
  28. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
  29. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Villarreal II · On: D. Fofana · Off: A. Arguigue Safsati
  30. 67′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–60–11
  31. 72′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–67–9
  32. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Teruel · On: Goyo Medina · Off: S. Moreno
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Teruel · On: H. Redon · Off: H. Albisua
  34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Villarreal II · On: A. Fores · Off: A. Garcia
  35. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Villarreal II · On: N. Barattucci · Off: J. Encuentra
  36. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  37. 77′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–74–7
  38. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Albelda · Villarreal II
  39. 81′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–81–5
  40. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' D. Fofana · Villarreal II
  41. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Villarreal II win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
  42. 85′We said Villarreal II at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–4
  43. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Teruel · On: C. Belevonis · Off: E. Gallardo Rodriguez
  44. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Villarreal II · On: A. Valls · Off: M. Diallo
  45. FTFULL TIME Villarreal II 2–0 Teruel
  46. FTVillarreal II 2–0 Teruel · Villarreal II win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villarreal II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villarreal II 60%, draw 26%, Teruel 15%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Villarreal II v TeruelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villarreal II win60%
Draw26%
Teruel win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:30

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio de la Ceramica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villarreal II

Teruel

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Villarreal II7+614
18Teruel7−95

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villarreal ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:27 · locked at kick-off
60% The market72%
Us60%
Market72%

We make Villarreal II a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Villarreal II v Teruel1.60 – 0.65
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 4 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 14 v 54 v 18
The market · Villarreal II win72% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 19:00
Our probability · Villarreal II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Villarreal II win60%72%−12
Draw26%18%+8
Teruel win15%10%+5
Over 2.5 goals39%55%−16
Both teams to score38%44%−6
Over 1.5 goals66%77%−11
Over 3.5 goals19%34%−15
Villarreal II or draw85%90%−5
Villarreal II clean sheet52%––
Teruel clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%
0123450 11.3 6.5 2.3 1 16.4 11.3 3.6 2 13.3 8.6 2.8 3 7.1 4.6 4 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Villarreal II down, Teruel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsTER 1–0 VIL · VIL 1–2 TER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 4 Sept

VILLARREAL II

WWDWLD2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–3

TERUEL

LLLDLW0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaragoza7+616
2FC Cartagena8+815
3Real Murcia7+415
4Villarreal II7+614
5Alcorcon8+813
6Hércules7+113
7Real Jaén7+312
8Huesca8011
9Antequera7+210
10Ibiza7010
11Atlético Madrid II7+39
12Real Madrid II7+19
13Sant Andreu7−18
14Gimnastic7−28
15Algeciras7−47
16Europa Fc8−87
17Águilas7−56
18Teruel7−95
19Rayo Majadahonda7−34
20Juventud Torremolinos7−102

The competition's standings before kick-off.