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Teruel v Alcorcon

Teruel

1–0Full time

Alcorcon

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Pinilla

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Teruel 1–0 Alcorcon ALCORCON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alcorcon win~~36%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.692

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.953

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alcorcon win at 36%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Alcorcon 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 33–31–36
3′Little has changed for our model: Alcorcon 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 32–31–36
43′42′ and it is 1–0: J. de Diego on the scoresheet for Teruel. 1–0 · 71–22–7
45′SECOND HALF Teruel 1–0 Alcorcon
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Alcorcon win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Teruel win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Alcorcon win 7%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alcorcon · On: G. Melero · Off: P. Rivera
46′42′ and it is 1–0: J. de Diego on the scoresheet for Teruel. 1–0 · 72–22–6
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Alcorcon win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Teruel win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Alcorcon win 7%)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 24' P. Rivera · Alcorcon
47′🟨 YELLOW · 31' E. Aparicio · Alcorcon
47′⚽ GOAL · 42' Teruel 1–0 Alcorcon · J. de Diego (assist E. Gallardo Rodriguez)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 52' H. Redon · Teruel
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alcorcon · On: G. Melero · Off: P. Rivera
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Alcorcon win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Teruel win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Alcorcon win 7%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Alcorcon win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Teruel win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Alcorcon win 7%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Alcorcon win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Teruel win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Alcorcon win 7%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 24' P. Rivera · Alcorcon
50′🟨 YELLOW · 31' E. Aparicio · Alcorcon
50′⚽ GOAL · 42' Teruel 1–0 Alcorcon · J. de Diego (assist E. Gallardo Rodriguez)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 52' H. Redon · Teruel
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alcorcon · On: G. Melero · Off: P. Rivera
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Teruel · On: S. Boriko · Off: H. Redon
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' E. Gallardo Rodriguez · Teruel
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' M. Cuesta · Alcorcon
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Davo · Alcorcon
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' A. Gaixas · Alcorcon
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Alcorcon · On: F. Sabina · Off: Davo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Alcorcon · On: R. Ibanez · Off: M. Berlanga
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Alcorcon · On: P. Domingo Ciuraneta · Off: A. Gaixas
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' J. Lancho · Alcorcon
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Teruel · On: Goyo Medina · Off: E. Gallardo Rodriguez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Teruel · On: M. Romera · Off: S. Moreno
93′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Teruel · On: P. Felipe · Off: M. Sese
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' H. Albisua · Teruel
95′🟨 YELLOW · 96' G. Melero · Alcorcon
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Relu · Teruel
FTFULL TIME Teruel 1–0 Alcorcon
FTTeruel 1–0 Alcorcon · Alcorcon win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Teruel win32%

Draw32%

Alcorcon win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Pinilla

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Teruel

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Zarco

2 A. Borge

15 A. Lopez

6 N. Nicholas

3 J. de Diego

10 H. Redon

14 Relu

16 H. Albisua

11 E. Gallardo Rodriguez

7 S. Moreno

21 M. Sese

Coach · Kiko Ramirez

Substitutes

1 · A. Palop

22 · L. Llacer

24 · S. Boriko

5 · Goyo Medina

4 · P. Felipe

28 · C. Igual

18 · C. Belevonis

8 · M. Romera

Alcorcon

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Banuz

22 X. Irurita

3 A. Gaixas

5 J. Lancho

17 M. Cuesta

20 M. Berlanga

6 P. Rivera

10 L. Vacas

11 O. Ouhdadi

7 E. Aparicio

9 Davo

Coach · Fran Justo

Substitutes

1 · O. Marti

2 · P. Domingo Ciuraneta

24 · L. Perez

4 · A. Mayorga

35 · D. Arcos

18 · G. Melero

16 · F. Manzanara

8 · T. Caravaca

19 · D. Palmer

21 · F. Sabina

23 · R. Ibanez

30 · N. Di Domenico

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Teruel

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Zarco

2 A. Borge

15 A. Lopez

6 N. Nicholas

3 J. de Diego

10 H. Redon

14 Relu

16 H. Albisua

11 E. Gallardo Rodriguez

7 S. Moreno

21 M. Sese

Coach · Kiko Ramirez

Substitutes

1 · A. Palop

22 · L. Llacer

24 · S. Boriko

5 · Goyo Medina

4 · P. Felipe

28 · C. Igual

18 · C. Belevonis

8 · M. Romera

Alcorcon

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Banuz

22 X. Irurita

3 A. Gaixas

5 J. Lancho

17 M. Cuesta

20 M. Berlanga

6 P. Rivera

10 L. Vacas

11 O. Ouhdadi

7 E. Aparicio

9 Davo

Coach · Fran Justo

Substitutes

1 · O. Marti

2 · P. Domingo Ciuraneta

24 · L. Perez

4 · A. Mayorga

35 · D. Arcos

18 · G. Melero

16 · F. Manzanara

8 · T. Caravaca

19 · D. Palmer

21 · F. Sabina

23 · R. Ibanez

30 · N. Di Domenico

Our number · alcorcon winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

36% The market51%

Us36%

~~Market~~51%

We make Alcorcon a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alcorcon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Teruel win	32%	21%	+11
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Alcorcon win	36%	51%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	33%	44%	−11
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	61%	68%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	15%	24%	−9
Teruel or draw	64%	49%	+14
Teruel clean sheet	35%	–	–
Alcorcon clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.0%

0123450 14.0 13.2 7.3 2.6 1 12.2 13.9 7.0 2.5 2 6.3 6.5 3.4 3 2.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Teruel down, Alcorcon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,961 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Teruel at home: 0.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alcorcon away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Teruel, 1.05 for Alcorcon. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TER 1–2 ALC · ALC 2–1 TER

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

TERUEL

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

ALCORCON

DDDWWW2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	6	+6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	+9	12
4	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
5	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
6	Real Jaén	6	+3	11
7	Ibiza	7	0	10
8	Hércules	6	0	10
9	Antequera	6	+2	9
10	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
11	Huesca	6	0	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	6	−2	7
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	6	−5	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
18	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
19	Teruel	6	−10	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	6	−10	1