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Teruel v Águilas

Teruel
1–1Full time
Águilas

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Pinilla

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17
Teruel 1–1 Águilas TERUEL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Teruel win41%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.718
The market’s Brier score0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Teruel win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Teruel 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Teruel v Águilas
  4. 5′We said Teruel at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–60
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Teruel 0–1 Águilas
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Teruel win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
  7. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Águilas win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Teruel win 40%)
  8. 7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Águilas
  9. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Teruel win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
  10. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Teruel win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Águilas win 60%)
  11. 17′We said Teruel at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  12. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Teruel 0–1 Águilas
  13. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Teruel win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
  14. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Águilas win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Teruel win 38%)
  15. 18′M. Abenza scores for Águilas on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  16. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Teruel 1–1 Águilas
  17. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Teruel win: 41% at kick-off, 36% now
  18. 29′29′: H. Albisua on the scoresheet for Teruel, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–39–25
  19. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Águilas win 64%)
  20. 31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Teruel
  21. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Teruel win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  22. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Águilas win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 40%)
  23. 34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Teruel · On: M. Romera · Off: Relu
  24. 39′We said Teruel at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  25. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' E. de Teresa · Águilas
  26. 45′SECOND HALF Teruel 0–1 Águilas
  27. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Águilas · On: D. Merchan · Off: E. de Teresa
  28. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' H. Albisua · Teruel
  29. 53′HALF-TIME Teruel 0–1 Águilas
  30. 60′We said Teruel at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  31. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Teruel · On: S. Ballero · Off: H. Albisua
  32. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Y. El Arbaoui · Águilas
  33. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Águilas · On: A. Nyada · Off: Y. El Arbaoui
  34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Águilas · On: G. Serrano Iranzo · Off: J. Raigal
  35. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' M. Romera · Teruel
  36. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Teruel win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  37. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Águilas · On: Fromsa · Off: H. Martinez
  38. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Teruel · On: S. Boriko · Off: H. Redon
  39. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' A. Hernandez · Águilas
  40. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Teruel · On: Goyo Medina · Off: S. Moreno
  41. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Águilas · On: J. Martinez · Off: J. Castedo
  42. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Ramirez Kiko · Teruel
  43. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Teruel 1–1 Águilas
  44. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Águilas win 98%)
  45. 94′90′: Goyo Medina on the scoresheet for Teruel, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
  46. 96′1–1 at the end. Our 41% on Teruel misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  47. FTFULL TIME Teruel 1–1 Águilas
  48. FTTeruel 1–1 Águilas · Teruel win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Teruel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Teruel 41%, draw 31%, Águilas 28%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Teruel v ÁguilasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Teruel win41%
Draw31%
Águilas win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:45

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

VenuePinilla

RefereeR. Ruiperez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Teruel

Águilas

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
17Águilas8−66
19Teruel8−115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · teruel winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
41% The market33%
Us41%
Market33%

We make Teruel a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Teruel v Águilas1.15 – 0.89
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 5 v 619 v 17
The market · Teruel win33% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 17:06
Our probability · Teruel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Teruel win41%33%+8
Draw31%31%0
Águilas win28%36%−8
Over 2.5 goals33%37%−4
Both teams to score40%45%−5
Over 1.5 goals61%62%−1
Over 3.5 goals15%19%−4
Teruel or draw72%64%+8
Teruel clean sheet41%––
Águilas clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%
0123450 13.8 11.1 5.2 1 14.4 13.7 5.9 2 8.5 7.5 3.3 3 3.3 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Teruel down, Águilas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

TERUEL

LLDLWL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2

ÁGUILAS

WDLLDL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaragoza9+720
2Villarreal II8+817
3Real Murcia9+316
4FC Cartagena8+815
5Real Jaén8+415
6Alcorcon8+813
7Ibiza8+113
8Hércules8−113
9Real Madrid II8+212
10Huesca8011
11Gimnastic8−111
12Antequera8+110
13Algeciras8−210
14Atlético Madrid II8+29
15Sant Andreu8−19
16Europa Fc9−97
17Águilas8−66
18Juventud Torremolinos9−96
19Teruel8−115
20Rayo Majadahonda8−44

The competition's standings before kick-off.