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Sant Andreu v Juventud Torremolinos

Sant Andreu

2–2Full time

Juventud Torremolinos

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Sant Andreu 2–2 Juventud Torremolinos SANT ANDREU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sant Andreu win~~52%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.865

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.902

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sant Andreu win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Sant Andreu v Juventud Torremolinos
2′Much as we predicted: Sant Andreu was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' J. Mendez · Sant Andreu
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
43′We published Sant Andreu at 52%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Sant Andreu 1–0 Juventud Torremolinos
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
44′J. Tovar scores for Sant Andreu on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
45′We published Sant Andreu at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′SECOND HALF Sant Andreu 1–0 Juventud Torremolinos
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' M. Krug · Juventud Torremolinos
46′HALF-TIME Sant Andreu 1–0 Juventud Torremolinos
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Juventud Torremolinos · On: W. Kaptoum · Off: M. Diaby
53′We said Sant Andreu at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–45–19
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Sant Andreu 1–1 Juventud Torremolinos
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 36% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sant Andreu win 36%)
54′53′: Dioni on the scoresheet for Juventud Torremolinos, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–45–19
55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–15–3
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sant Andreu 2–1 Juventud Torremolinos
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Sant Andreu win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 15%)
56′Sant Andreu ahead on 56′ through A. G. Garcia. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–3
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Juventud Torremolinos · On: I. Dorgu · Off: I. Laca
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Juventud Torremolinos · On: M. Sanchez · Off: E. Grozdanic Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Juventud Torremolinos · On: M. Sanchez · Off: R. Ajegun Perez
67′We published Sant Andreu at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sant Andreu · On: S. Serrano · Off: A. Bermejo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sant Andreu · On: S. Armero · Off: J. Tovar
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sant Andreu · On: P. Darbra · Off: M. Delgado
78′We published Sant Andreu at 52%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Juventud Torremolinos · On: O. Buch · Off: Dioni
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
85′We published Sant Andreu at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′We said Sant Andreu at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–89–4
88′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 7–89–4
88′C. Rodriguez scores for Juventud Torremolinos on 88′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 7–89–4
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sant Andreu 2–2 Juventud Torremolinos
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 7% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Sant Andreu win 7%)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' O. Buch · Juventud Torremolinos
91′We said Sant Andreu at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Sant Andreu win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' N. Gonzalez · Sant Andreu
99′Full time, 2–2. We called Sant Andreu at 52% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Sant Andreu 2–2 Juventud Torremolinos
FTSant Andreu 2–2 Juventud Torremolinos · Sant Andreu win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sant Andreu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sant Andreu 52%, draw 26%, Juventud Torremolinos 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Sant Andreu v Juventud TorremolinosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sant Andreu win52%

Draw26%

Juventud Torremolinos win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

RefereeA. Ramo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sant Andreu

Juventud Torremolinos

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Sant Andreu	7	−1	8
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sant andreu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:27 · locked at kick-off

52% The market56%

Us52%

~~Market~~56%

We make Sant Andreu a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sant Andreu v Juventud Torremolinos~~1.61 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 2~~14 v 20

~~The market · Sant Andreu win~~56% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sant Andreu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sant Andreu win	52%	56%	−4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Juventud Torremolinos win	23%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Sant Andreu or draw	77%	82%	−5
Sant Andreu clean sheet	38%	–	–
Juventud Torremolinos clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.3 6.9 3.6 1 11.7 12.2 5.7 2 9.7 9.3 4.5 3 5.2 5.0 2.5 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sant Andreu down, Juventud Torremolinos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,975 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sant Andreu at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Juventud Torremolinos away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Sant Andreu, 0.97 for Juventud Torremolinos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SANT ANDREU

WLDWDL2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

JUVENTUD TORREMOLINOS

LLLLLD0–2 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
2	Zaragoza	7	+6	16
3	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
4	Real Murcia	7	+4	15
5	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
6	Ibiza	8	+1	13
7	Hércules	8	−1	13
8	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	8	0	11
11	Antequera	8	+1	10
12	Algeciras	8	−2	10
13	Atlético Madrid II	7	+3	9
14	Sant Andreu	7	−1	8
15	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
16	Europa Fc	8	−8	7
17	Águilas	8	−6	6
18	Teruel	8	−11	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	−3	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2