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Real Madrid II v Antequera

Real Madrid II

3–2Full time

Antequera

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Real Madrid II 3–2 Antequera REAL MADRID II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Madrid II win~~51%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.365

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.334

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Madrid II win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Madrid II 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
1′KICK-OFF Real Madrid II v Antequera
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' M. Parra · Antequera
40′Antequera ahead on 40′ through an own goal by J. Cestero Sancho. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–26–59
40′We said Real Madrid II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–26–59
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 15–26–59
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Real Madrid II 0–1 Antequera · J. Cestero Sancho (own goal)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Real Madrid II win: 51% at kick-off, 15% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Antequera win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Real Madrid II win 15%)
42′We said Real Madrid II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–59
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' J. Anton · Antequera
45′A. Carvajal scores for Real Madrid II on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–39–21
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Real Madrid II 1–1 Antequera · A. Carvajal
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Real Madrid II win: 51% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Real Madrid II 1–1 Antequera
46′We said Real Madrid II at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–40–21
46′SECOND HALF Real Madrid II 1–1 Antequera
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' R. Martin · Real Madrid II
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Antequera win 20%)
53′53′: A. Leiva on the scoresheet for Real Madrid II, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Real Madrid II 2–1 Antequera · A. Leiva
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Real Madrid II win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Real Madrid II win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
54′We said Real Madrid II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
54′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–16–4
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Real Madrid II win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
58′Antequera are down to ten from 57′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 81–16–3
58′🟥 RED CARD · 57' I. Perez · Antequera
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' A. Gene · Antequera
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Antequera · On: A. Zarzana · Off: J. Anton
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Antequera · On: J. Martinez · Off: I. Dominguez
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Antequera · On: D. Ilahude · Off: A. Gene
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Antequera · On: R. Alarcon · Off: M. Parra
68′Real Madrid II ahead on 67′ through A. Ciria. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
68′We said Real Madrid II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Real Madrid II 3–1 Antequera · A. Ciria
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Real Madrid II win: 51% at kick-off, 98% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Real Madrid II · On: P. Fortuny · Off: D. Yanez
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Real Madrid II · On: S. Martinez · Off: A. Ciria
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Real Madrid II · On: L. Fati · Off: O. Naasei
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' J. Fortea · Real Madrid II
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Real Madrid II · On: A. Perez · Off: R. Martin
81′We said Real Madrid II at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Real Madrid II · On: R. Fettal · Off: A. Carvajal
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Antequera · On: Aguero · Off: Luismi Gutierrez
91′D. Ilahude scores for Antequera on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 97–3–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Real Madrid II 3–2 Antequera · D. Ilahude
92′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Aguero · Antequera
FTFULL TIME Real Madrid II 3–2 Antequera
FTReal Madrid II 3–2 Antequera · Real Madrid II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Madrid II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Madrid II 51%, draw 26%, Antequera 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Real Madrid II v AntequeraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Madrid II win51%

Draw26%

Antequera win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

RefereeI. Irurtzun

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Madrid II

Antequera

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Antequera	7	+2	10
13	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real madrid ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market53%

Us51%

~~Market~~53%

We make Real Madrid II a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Madrid II v Antequera~~1.61 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~13 v 10

~~The market · Real Madrid II win~~53% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Madrid II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Madrid II win	51%	53%	−2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Antequera win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Real Madrid II or draw	77%	79%	−2
Real Madrid II clean sheet	37%	–	–
Antequera clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.0 6.9 3.8 1 11.2 12.2 5.9 2.0 2 9.3 9.3 4.7 3 5.0 5.0 2.6 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Madrid II down, Antequera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,975 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Madrid II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Antequera away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Real Madrid II, 1.01 for Antequera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ANT 0–0 REA · REA 1–2 ANT · REA 0–0 ANT · ANT 1–2 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

REAL MADRID II

WLDLWD2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

ANTEQUERA

LDDWDD0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
2	Zaragoza	7	+6	16
3	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
4	Real Murcia	7	+4	15
5	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
6	Ibiza	8	+1	13
7	Hércules	8	−1	13
8	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
9	Huesca	8	0	11
10	Antequera	7	+2	10
11	Algeciras	8	−2	10
12	Atlético Madrid II	7	+3	9
13	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
14	Sant Andreu	7	−1	8
15	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
16	Europa Fc	8	−8	7
17	Águilas	8	−6	6
18	Teruel	8	−11	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	−3	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2