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Real Jaén v Villarreal II

Real Jaén

3–3Full time

Villarreal II

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Real Jaén 3–3 Villarreal II REAL JAÉN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Jaén win~~37%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.751

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.764

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Jaén win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Jaén 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Real Jaén v Villarreal II
2′Little has changed for our model: Real Jaén 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–34
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Real Jaén 0–1 Villarreal II · A. Garcia
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Real Jaén 0–1 Villarreal II · A. Garcia
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Real Jaén 1–1 Villarreal II · M. Siverio
22′M. Siverio scores for Real Jaén on 14′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–33–32
23′M. Siverio scores for Real Jaén on 14′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–34–32
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' E. Pujol · Villarreal II
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' A. Caballero · Real Jaén
45′HALF-TIME Real Jaén 1–1 Villarreal II
45′⚽ GOAL · 4' Real Jaén 1–1 Villarreal II · A. Garcia (assist M. Barry)
45′⚽ GOAL · 14' Real Jaén 1–1 Villarreal II · M. Siverio
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' E. Pujol · Villarreal II
46′SECOND HALF Real Jaén 1–1 Villarreal II
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Real Jaén · On: J. Moyano · Off: A. Caballero
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Real Jaén 1–2 Villarreal II · A. Garcia
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' F. Viveros · Villarreal II
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Real Jaén · On: O. Lozano · Off: P. Adri
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Real Jaén · On: D. Rodriguez · Off: N. Castillo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Villarreal II · On: N. Sanchez · Off: M. Barry
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Real Jaén 2–2 Villarreal II · M. Keita
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Villarreal II · On: A. Fores · Off: J. Encuentra
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Villarreal II · On: A. Arguigue Safsati · Off: F. Viveros
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Villarreal II · On: N. Barattucci · Off: D. Fofana
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Real Jaén 2–3 Villarreal II · A. Arguigue Safsati (assist A. Garcia)
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' A. Arguigue Safsati · Villarreal II
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Villarreal II · On: A. Valls · Off: P. Pascual
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Jaén · On: C. Polo · Off: M. Martos Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Jaén · On: F. Gallego · Off: M. Martos
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' C. Tidiane Thiam · Villarreal II
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' A. Garcia · Villarreal II
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Real Jaén 3–3 Villarreal II · M. Siverio
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' J. Pol · Real Jaén
FTFULL TIME Real Jaén 3–3 Villarreal II
FTReal Jaén 3–3 Villarreal II · Real Jaén win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Real Jaén win37%

Draw29%

Villarreal II win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:45

Venue · Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Real Jaén

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Morillas

21 M. Sanhaji

6 J. Alvarez

4 J. Pol

3 D. Serrano

8 A. Caballero

10 P. Adri

11 M. Martos

18 N. Castillo

19 M. Keita

9 M. Siverio

Coach · Manuel Herrero Galaso

Substitutes

13 · S. Carrasco

20 · M. Cabello

5 · D. Marquez

27 · S. Fall

17 · J. Moyano

2 · D. Gomez

23 · D. Rodriguez

16 · Chino

7 · F. Gallego

14 · C. Polo

15 · Y. Senhadji

22 · O. Lozano

Villarreal II

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Kinareykin

2 J. Encuentra

5 A. Garcia

4 E. Pujol

3 E. Ortiz

6 P. Pascual

8 C. Tidiane Thiam

10 F. Viveros

9 A. Garcia

19 M. Barry

22 D. Fofana

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · A. Quevedo

14 · A. Fores

23 · M. Diallo

21 · M. Keita

16 · A. Valls

24 · A. Arguigue Safsati

20 · N. Barattucci

18 · V. Gomez

12 · N. Sanchez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Real Jaén

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Morillas

21 M. Sanhaji

6 J. Alvarez

4 J. Pol

3 D. Serrano

8 A. Caballero

10 P. Adri

11 M. Martos

18 N. Castillo

19 M. Keita

9 M. Siverio

Coach · Manuel Herrero Galaso

Substitutes

13 · S. Carrasco

20 · M. Cabello

5 · D. Marquez

27 · S. Fall

17 · J. Moyano

2 · D. Gomez

23 · D. Rodriguez

16 · Chino

7 · F. Gallego

14 · C. Polo

15 · Y. Senhadji

22 · O. Lozano

Villarreal II

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Kinareykin

2 J. Encuentra

5 A. Garcia

4 E. Pujol

3 E. Ortiz

6 P. Pascual

8 C. Tidiane Thiam

10 F. Viveros

9 A. Garcia

19 M. Barry

22 D. Fofana

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · A. Quevedo

14 · A. Fores

23 · M. Diallo

21 · M. Keita

16 · A. Valls

24 · A. Arguigue Safsati

20 · N. Barattucci

18 · V. Gomez

12 · N. Sanchez

Our number · real jaén winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

37% The market32%

Us37%

~~Market~~32%

We make Real Jaén a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Jaén win	37%	32%	+5
Draw	29%	29%	+1
Villarreal II win	33%	39%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	48%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
Real Jaén or draw	67%	61%	+5
Real Jaén clean sheet	33%	–	–
Villarreal II clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.6 10.4 6.2 2.4 1 11.2 13.6 7.3 2.8 2 7.0 7.8 4.4 3 2.9 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Jaén down, Villarreal II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,961 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Real Jaén at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Villarreal II away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Real Jaén, 1.13 for Villarreal II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

REAL JAÉN

WDWWLD3–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

VILLARREAL II

WWWDWL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	6	+6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	+9	12
4	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
5	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
6	Real Jaén	6	+3	11
7	Ibiza	7	0	10
8	Hércules	6	0	10
9	Antequera	6	+2	9
10	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
11	Huesca	6	0	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	6	−2	7
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	6	−5	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
18	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
19	Teruel	6	−10	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	6	−10	1