Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 2 › Real Jaén v Rayo Majadahonda

Real Jaén v Rayo Majadahonda

Real Jaén

1–0Full time

Rayo Majadahonda

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Real Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda REAL JAÉN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Real Jaén win~~50%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.379

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Jaén win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Jaén 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–23
1′KICK-OFF Real Jaén v Rayo Majadahonda
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' M. Keita · Real Jaén
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' D. del Pozo · Rayo Majadahonda
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' J. Cambra · Rayo Majadahonda
32′D. Serrano scores for Real Jaén on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Real Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda · D. Serrano
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Real Jaén win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
33′We said Real Jaén at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
33′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
42′We said Real Jaén at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Real Jaén win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Y. Yoshimura · Rayo Majadahonda
45′HALF-TIME Real Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda
46′SECOND HALF Real Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' M. Sanhaji · Real Jaén
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' J. Alvarez · Real Jaén
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Jaén · On: M. Cabello · Off: D. Rodriguez
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Jaén · On: D. Gomez · Off: N. Castillo
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Jaén · On: A. Caballero · Off: P. Adri
65′We said Real Jaén at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rayo Majadahonda · On: A. Amaro · Off: D. del Pozo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rayo Majadahonda · On: N. Celorio · Off: G. Calcada
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Jaén · On: F. Gallego · Off: C. Polo
76′We said Real Jaén at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Real Jaén win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rayo Majadahonda · On: O. Mesa · Off: Y. Yoshimura
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rayo Majadahonda · On: I. Alvarez · Off: D. Gallardo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rayo Majadahonda · On: R. Quintanilla · Off: A. Sotillos
84′We said Real Jaén at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Jaén · On: D. Marquez · Off: M. Martos
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' A. Amaro · Rayo Majadahonda
FTFULL TIME Real Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda
FTReal Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda · Real Jaén win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Jaén are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Jaén 50%, draw 28%, Rayo Majadahonda 23%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Real Jaén v Rayo MajadahondaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Jaén win50%

Draw28%

Rayo Majadahonda win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:15

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

VenueNuevo Estadio de La Victoria

RefereeJ. Martinez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Jaén

Rayo Majadahonda

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real jaén winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market45%

Us50%

~~Market~~45%

We make Real Jaén a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Jaén v Rayo Majadahonda~~1.46 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~8 v 19

~~The market · Real Jaén win~~45% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Jaén win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Jaén win	50%	45%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Rayo Majadahonda win	23%	27%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Real Jaén or draw	77%	73%	+4
Real Jaén clean sheet	41%	–	–
Rayo Majadahonda clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.2 8.0 3.8 1 13.3 12.7 5.4 2 10.1 8.9 4.0 3 5.0 4.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Jaén down, Rayo Majadahonda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,975 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Real Jaén at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Rayo Majadahonda away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Real Jaén, 0.89 for Rayo Majadahonda. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

REAL JAÉN

DWWLDD2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–3

RAYO MAJADAHONDA

LDWLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
2	Zaragoza	7	+6	16
3	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
4	Real Murcia	7	+4	15
5	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
6	Ibiza	8	+1	13
7	Hércules	8	−1	13
8	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	8	0	11
11	Antequera	8	+1	10
12	Algeciras	8	−2	10
13	Atlético Madrid II	7	+3	9
14	Sant Andreu	7	−1	8
15	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
16	Europa Fc	8	−8	7
17	Águilas	8	−6	6
18	Teruel	8	−11	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	−3	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2