Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 2 › Rayo Majadahonda v Sant Andreu

Rayo Majadahonda v Sant Andreu

Rayo Majadahonda

2–1Full time

Sant Andreu

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Cerro del Espino

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Sant Andreu RAYO MAJADAHONDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rayo Majadahonda win~~43%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rayo Majadahonda win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rayo Majadahonda was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
1′KICK-OFF Rayo Majadahonda v Sant Andreu
11′We published Rayo Majadahonda at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Rayo Majadahonda 1–0 Sant Andreu
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Rayo Majadahonda win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
13′Rayo Majadahonda ahead on 12′ through Y. Yoshimura. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' J. Mendez · Sant Andreu
29′We published Rayo Majadahonda at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–7
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' A. Sotillos · Rayo Majadahonda
45′SECOND HALF Rayo Majadahonda 1–0 Sant Andreu
46′HALF-TIME Rayo Majadahonda 1–0 Sant Andreu
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sant Andreu · On: J. Anaya · Off: J. Mendez
55′We published Rayo Majadahonda at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
57′We published Rayo Majadahonda at 43%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Rayo Majadahonda 2–0 Sant Andreu
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Rayo Majadahonda win: 43% at kick-off, 97% now
58′G. Calcada scores for Rayo Majadahonda on 58′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–16–3
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Sant Andreu
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Rayo Majadahonda win: 43% at kick-off, 81% now
61′61′: A. Bermejo on the scoresheet for Sant Andreu, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sant Andreu · On: J. De Leon · Off: A. G. Garcia
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' A. Hernandez · Sant Andreu
69′We published Rayo Majadahonda at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
78′We published Rayo Majadahonda at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sant Andreu · On: O. Carrasco · Off: P. Darbra
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rayo Majadahonda · On: I. Ramos · Off: J. Cambra
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sant Andreu · On: P. Agudin · Off: D. Torices
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sant Andreu · On: S. Armero · Off: A. Bermejo
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Rayo Majadahonda win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rayo Majadahonda · On: B. Sina · Off: G. Calcada
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' J. Duran · Rayo Majadahonda
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Rayo Majadahonda · On: O. Mesa · Off: T. Aguado
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Rayo Majadahonda · On: N. Celorio · Off: A. Sotillos
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Rayo Majadahonda · On: A. Amaro · Off: Y. Yoshimura
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' D. Ramos Cruz · Rayo Majadahonda
97′Full time, 2–1. We called Rayo Majadahonda at 43% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
97′🟨 YELLOW · 88' D. Ramos Cruz · Rayo Majadahonda
FTFULL TIME Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Sant Andreu
FTRayo Majadahonda 2–1 Sant Andreu · Rayo Majadahonda win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rayo Majadahonda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rayo Majadahonda 43%, draw 30%, Sant Andreu 28%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Rayo Majadahonda v Sant AndreuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rayo Majadahonda win43%

Draw30%

Sant Andreu win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Cerro del Espino

RefereeD. Manrique

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rayo Majadahonda

Sant Andreu

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Sant Andreu	8	−1	9
19	Rayo Majadahonda	8	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rayo majadahonda winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:14 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Rayo Majadahonda a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rayo Majadahonda v Sant Andreu~~1.24 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~19 v 15

~~The market · Rayo Majadahonda win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rayo Majadahonda win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayo Majadahonda win	43%	43%	0
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Sant Andreu win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Rayo Majadahonda or draw	72%	72%	0
Rayo Majadahonda clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sant Andreu clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 12.0 10.1 5.0 1 13.4 13.5 6.1 2 8.6 8.0 3.8 3 3.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayo Majadahonda down, Sant Andreu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,981 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rayo Majadahonda at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Sant Andreu away: 0.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Rayo Majadahonda, 0.94 for Sant Andreu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–2 RAY · RAY 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

RAYO MAJADAHONDA

DWLLLL1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

SANT ANDREU

LDWDLD0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	9	+7	20
2	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
3	Real Murcia	8	+4	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	8	0	11
11	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
12	Antequera	8	+1	10
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	8	−1	9
16	Europa Fc	9	−9	7
17	Águilas	8	−6	6
18	Teruel	8	−11	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	8	−4	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	8	−10	3