Rayo Majadahonda v Real Murcia prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Rayo Majadahonda 0–1 Real Murcia RAYO MAJADAHONDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rayo Majadahonda win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rayo Majadahonda win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rayo Majadahonda was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
2′Much as we predicted: Rayo Majadahonda was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
23′D. Bosilj scores for Real Murcia on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
25′D. Bosilj scores for Real Murcia on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–23–65
45′We said Rayo Majadahonda at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–70
45′SECOND HALF Rayo Majadahonda 0–1 Real Murcia
48′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 7–22–71
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Real Murcia
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' I. Ramos · Rayo Majadahonda
49′We said Rayo Majadahonda at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–70
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Rayo Majadahonda win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Rayo Majadahonda win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Rayo Majadahonda · On: J. Duran · Off: N. Celorio
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Real Murcia · On: C. Nunez · Off: Joao Pedro Palmberg
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rayo Majadahonda · On: Y. Yoshimura · Off: R. Quintanilla
59′A red card for Rayo Majadahonda on 48′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 4–20–76
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rayo Majadahonda · On: B. Sina · Off: O. Mesa
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' J. Mier · Real Murcia
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' M. Gonzaga · Rayo Majadahonda
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Y. Yoshimura · Rayo Majadahonda
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' D. Bosilj · Real Murcia
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rayo Majadahonda · On: G. Calcada · Off: A. Sotillos
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rayo Majadahonda · On: G. Calcada · Off: A. Sotillos
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Real Murcia · On: A. Bustos · Off: J. Moreno Sanchez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Real Murcia · On: A. Yoldi · Off: O. Gil
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Real Murcia · On: A. Gimenez · Off: D. Bosilj
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' A. Gimenez · Real Murcia
80′We said Rayo Majadahonda at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–10–89
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' B. Sina · Rayo Majadahonda
82′A red card for Rayo Majadahonda on 48′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 0–8–91
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Murcia · On: M. Errahaly · Off: C. Romero
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Murcia · On: M. Errahaly · Off: C. Romero
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' A. Bustos · Real Murcia
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' C. Nunez · Real Murcia
FTFULL TIME Rayo Majadahonda 0–1 Real Murcia
FTRayo Majadahonda 0–1 Real Murcia · Rayo Majadahonda win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rayo Majadahonda win38%

Draw31%

Real Murcia win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:45

VenueEstadio Cerro del Espino

Line-ups

Rayo Majadahonda

Real Murcia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rayo Majadahonda

Real Murcia

7Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
18	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rayo Majadahonda

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Prieto

5 D. Gallardo

4 D. Ramos Cruz

20 A. Sotillos

17 O. Mesa

28 I. Ramos

22 R. Quintanilla

18 T. Aguado

15 N. Celorio

21 J. Cambra

19 M. Gonzaga

Coach · Guillermo Fernandez

Substitutes

1 · T. Fuidias

23 · J. Duran

24 · B. Sina

14 · Y. Yoshimura

8 · A. Amaro

6 · D. del Pozo

7 · G. Calcada

16 · I. Alvarez

Real Murcia

Formation not confirmed

13 D. Jimenez

2 J. Mier

6 A. Gonzalez

4 H. Perez

3 C. Romero

8 J. Mier

15 O. Gil

14 Joao Pedro Palmberg

17 J. Moreno Sanchez

23 D. Bosilj

19 J. Jorquera Romero

Coach · Sergio Guillo

Substitutes

1 · D. Pineiro del Alamo

5 · J. Rojas

21 · M. Errahaly

24 · J. G. Sanchez

10 · C. Nunez

40 · A. Meca

27 · A. Yoldi

28 · R. Rubira Riquelme

20 · A. Gimenez

11 · A. Bustos

Our number · rayo majadahonda winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Rayo Majadahonda a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rayo majadahonda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayo Majadahonda win	38%	37%	+1
Draw	31%	30%	0
Real Murcia win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	17%	22%	−5
Rayo Majadahonda or draw	69%	67%	+2
Rayo Majadahonda clean sheet	37%	–	–
Real Murcia clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.6 11.3 6.0 2.0 1 12.8 13.8 6.7 2.3 2 7.5 7.5 3.8 3 2.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayo Majadahonda down, Real Murcia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,965 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Rayo Majadahonda at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Real Murcia away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Rayo Majadahonda, 1.01 for Real Murcia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

RAYO MAJADAHONDA

LLDWLL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

REAL MURCIA

WWLWWL2–1 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	7	+6	14
3	Alcorcon	7	+8	12
4	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
5	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
6	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
7	Huesca	7	0	10
8	Ibiza	7	0	10
9	Hércules	6	0	10
10	Antequera	6	+2	9
11	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	7	−5	6
17	Teruel	7	−9	5
18	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
19	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2