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Juventud Torremolinos v Real Murcia

Juventud Torremolinos

1–0Full time

Real Murcia

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Juventud Torremolinos 1–0 Real Murcia REAL MURCIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Murcia win~~36%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.636

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Murcia win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Murcia was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Juventud Torremolinos v Real Murcia
1′🟨 YELLOW · 1' V. Olmedo · Real Murcia
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' C. Rodriguez · Juventud Torremolinos
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' M. Diaby · Juventud Torremolinos
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Real Murcia win 34%)
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' J. Mier · Real Murcia
45′SECOND HALF Juventud Torremolinos 0–0 Real Murcia
46′HALF-TIME Juventud Torremolinos 0–0 Real Murcia
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Juventud Torremolinos · On: M. Sanchez · Off: M. Diaby
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' U. Diao · Real Murcia
53′We published Real Murcia at 36%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Juventud Torremolinos 0–1 Real Murcia
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Real Murcia win: 36% at kick-off, 74% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Real Murcia win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 47%)
54′54′: A. Gimenez on the scoresheet for Real Murcia, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
55′We published Real Murcia at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Real Murcia
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Real Murcia win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Real Murcia win 75%)
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Real Murcia · On: J. Moreno Sanchez · Off: U. Diao
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Juventud Torremolinos · On: I. Matiti · Off: R. Ajegun Perez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Juventud Torremolinos · On: J. Brandes · Off: J. Merida Palomino
59′We said Real Murcia at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Murcia · On: H. Perez · Off: V. Olmedo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Murcia · On: D. Bosilj · Off: Joao Pedro Palmberg
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Murcia · On: S. Moyita · Off: C. Nunez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Juventud Torremolinos · On: P. Perez · Off: I. Dorgu
69′We said Real Murcia at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Murcia · On: M. Errahaly · Off: J. Mier
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Joao Pedro Palmberg · Real Murcia
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Real Murcia win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
77′We said Real Murcia at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
77′We said Real Murcia at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' M. Errahaly · Real Murcia
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Juventud Torremolinos 1–0 Real Murcia
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Real Murcia win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Juventud Torremolinos win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 73%)
78′78′: P. Perez on the scoresheet for Juventud Torremolinos, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Juventud Torremolinos · On: M. Prevedini · Off: C. Rodriguez
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' A. Climent · Juventud Torremolinos
96′Full time, 1–0. We called Real Murcia at 36% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Juventud Torremolinos 1–0 Real Murcia
FTJuventud Torremolinos 1–0 Real Murcia · Real Murcia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Real Murcia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Juventud Torremolinos 35%, draw 29%, Real Murcia 36%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Juventud Torremolinos v Real MurciaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Juventud Torremolinos win35%

Draw29%

Real Murcia win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Municipal El Pozuelo

RefereeA. Angelov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juventud Torremolinos

Real Murcia

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Real Murcia	8	+4	16
20	Juventud Torremolinos	8	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real murcia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

36% The market44%

Us36%

~~Market~~44%

We make Real Murcia a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juventud Torremolinos v Real Murcia~~1.19 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 16~~20 v 3

~~The market · Real Murcia win~~44% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Murcia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventud Torremolinos win	35%	28%	+7
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Real Murcia win	36%	44%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	30%	−8
Juventud Torremolinos or draw	64%	56%	+8
Juventud Torremolinos clean sheet	30%	–	–
Real Murcia clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.7 10.5 6.7 2.7 1 10.2 13.4 7.8 3.2 2 6.4 7.7 4.6 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventud Torremolinos down, Real Murcia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,981 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventud Torremolinos at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Murcia away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Juventud Torremolinos, 1.22 for Real Murcia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JUV 1–3 REA · REA 1–0 JUV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

JUVENTUD TORREMOLINOS

LLLLDD3–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 2–2

REAL MURCIA

LWWLWD0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	9	+7	20
2	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
3	Real Murcia	8	+4	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	8	0	11
11	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
12	Antequera	8	+1	10
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	8	−1	9
16	Europa Fc	9	−9	7
17	Águilas	8	−6	6
18	Teruel	8	−11	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	8	−4	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	8	−10	3