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Juventud Torremolinos v Gimnastic

Juventud Torremolinos

2–2Full time

Gimnastic

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Juventud Torremolinos 2–2 Gimnastic JUVENTUD TORREMOLINOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juventud Torremolinos win~~44%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juventud Torremolinos win at 44%.
4′KICK-OFF Juventud Torremolinos v Gimnastic
6′Much as we predicted: Juventud Torremolinos was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Juventud Torremolinos 0–1 Gimnastic
26′⚽ GOAL · 27' Juventud Torremolinos 0–1 Gimnastic · Eugeni
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' D. Moubeke · Juventud Torremolinos
45′SECOND HALF Juventud Torremolinos 0–1 Gimnastic
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Juventud Torremolinos · On: M. Krug · Off: D. Moubeke
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' A. Almansa · Gimnastic
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' J. Merida Palomino · Juventud Torremolinos
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juventud Torremolinos · On: P. Perez · Off: M. Diaby
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juventud Torremolinos · On: I. Matiti · Off: I. Laca
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juventud Torremolinos · On: M. Sanchez · Off: R. Ajegun Perez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Gimnastic · On: D. Gomez · Off: S. Bakis
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gimnastic · On: B. Sanchez · Off: Eugeni
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gimnastic · On: J. Prohens · Off: C. Segura
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' M. Montalvo · Gimnastic
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Juventud Torremolinos 1–1 Gimnastic · Eugeni
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Juventud Torremolinos 1–1 Gimnastic · A. Climent
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Gimnastic · On: O. Subirats · Off: Joseda
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' A. Climent · Juventud Torremolinos
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Juventud Torremolinos · On: I. Dorgu · Off: Dioni
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Jose Amo · Gimnastic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gimnastic · On: V. Villote · Off: A. Almansa
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Juventud Torremolinos 1–2 Gimnastic · C. Rodriguez
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Juventud Torremolinos 1–2 Gimnastic · B. Sanchez
92′⚽ GOAL · 89' Juventud Torremolinos 1–2 Gimnastic · B. Sanchez (assist D. Gomez)
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Juventud Torremolinos 2–2 Gimnastic · B. Sanchez
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Juventud Torremolinos 2–2 Gimnastic · M. Barboza
FTFULL TIME Juventud Torremolinos 2–2 Gimnastic
FTJuventud Torremolinos 2–2 Gimnastic · Juventud Torremolinos win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Juventud Torremolinos win44%

Draw27%

Gimnastic win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Juventud Torremolinos

Formation not confirmed

1 Belman

2 R. Ajegun Perez

5 J. Merida Palomino

4 M. Barboza

24 E. Grozdanic

10 C. Rodriguez

6 A. Climent

14 D. Moubeke

9 Dioni

11 I. Laca

21 M. Diaby

Coach · Cesar Arzo

Substitutes

13 · J. Cuenca

19 · M. Prevedini

23 · M. A. Petersson

3 · M. Krug

31 · J. Bozada

16 · M. Sanchez

12 · O. Buch

20 · I. Dorgu

8 · P. Perez

27 · I. Matiti

28 · P. Driton

Gimnastic

Formation not confirmed

13 V. Abril

22 Joseda

15 Jose Amo

21 I. Athuman

23 M. Royo

16 M. Babanzilla

8 M. Montalvo

10 Eugeni

20 C. Segura

12 S. Bakis

17 A. Almansa

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · G. Ayesa

4 · F. Gil

2 · O. Subirats

3 · V. Villote

6 · T. Gabarri

7 · B. Sanchez

11 · D. Gomez

19 · J. Prohens

9 · P. Marco

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Juventud Torremolinos

Formation not confirmed

1 Belman

2 R. Ajegun Perez

5 J. Merida Palomino

4 M. Barboza

24 E. Grozdanic

10 C. Rodriguez

6 A. Climent

14 D. Moubeke

9 Dioni

11 I. Laca

21 M. Diaby

Coach · Cesar Arzo

Substitutes

13 · J. Cuenca

19 · M. Prevedini

23 · M. A. Petersson

3 · M. Krug

31 · J. Bozada

16 · M. Sanchez

12 · O. Buch

20 · I. Dorgu

8 · P. Perez

27 · I. Matiti

28 · P. Driton

Gimnastic

Formation not confirmed

13 V. Abril

22 Joseda

15 Jose Amo

21 I. Athuman

23 M. Royo

16 M. Babanzilla

8 M. Montalvo

10 Eugeni

20 C. Segura

12 S. Bakis

17 A. Almansa

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · G. Ayesa

4 · F. Gil

2 · O. Subirats

3 · V. Villote

6 · T. Gabarri

7 · B. Sanchez

11 · D. Gomez

19 · J. Prohens

9 · P. Marco

Our number · juventud torremolinos winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

44% The market32%

Us44%

~~Market~~32%

We make Juventud Torremolinos a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · juventud torremolinos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventud Torremolinos win	44%	32%	+12
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Gimnastic win	28%	40%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−7
Juventud Torremolinos or draw	72%	60%	+11
Juventud Torremolinos clean sheet	34%	–	–
Gimnastic clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.8 8.2 4.8 1 11.0 13.0 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.8 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventud Torremolinos down, Gimnastic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,961 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventud Torremolinos at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gimnastic away: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Juventud Torremolinos, 1.09 for Gimnastic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GIM 2–0 JUV · JUV 2–0 GIM

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

JUVENTUD TORREMOLINOS

DLLLLL2–2 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–5

GIMNASTIC

WDWLLL2–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	6	+6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	+9	12
4	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
5	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
6	Real Jaén	6	+3	11
7	Ibiza	7	0	10
8	Hércules	6	0	10
9	Antequera	6	+2	9
10	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
11	Huesca	6	0	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	6	−2	7
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	6	−5	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
18	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
19	Teruel	6	−10	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	6	−10	1