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Ibiza v Real Madrid II

Ibiza

1–1Full time

Real Madrid II

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · FRI 9 OCT · Estadi Municipal de Can Misses

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Ibiza 1–1 Real Madrid II IBIZA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ibiza win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.788

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.776

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ibiza win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Ibiza v Real Madrid II
2′Little has changed for our model: Ibiza 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–27
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Ibiza 1–0 Real Madrid II · P. Ortiz
15′⚽ GOAL · 13' Ibiza 1–0 Real Madrid II · P. Ortiz (assist M. Justo)
16′P. Ortiz scores for Ibiza on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' V. Garcia · Ibiza
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Ibiza win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
21′We said Ibiza at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
26′We said Ibiza at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Ibiza win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Ibiza 1–0 Real Madrid II
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ibiza · On: G. Almenara · Off: P. Busto
46′SECOND HALF Ibiza 1–0 Real Madrid II
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Real Madrid II · On: R. Martin · Off: S. Martinez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Real Madrid II · On: A. Leiva · Off: P. Fortuny
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ibiza · On: J. Eslava · Off: M. Justo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ibiza · On: I. Fadel · Off: P. Ortiz
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Ibiza 1–1 Real Madrid II · A. Carvajal
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ibiza · On: J. Lazo · Off: J. Eslava Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' J. Lazo · Ibiza
FTIbiza 1–1 Real Madrid II · Ibiza win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ibiza win45%

Draw28%

Real Madrid II win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Estadi Municipal de Can Misses

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ibiza

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Prieto

2 P. Busto

4 J. Blasco

24 E. Ruiz

3 V. Garcia

20 P. Ortiz

6 J. Calavera

10 A. Yoldi

18 D. Astals

17 T. Valls

9 M. Justo

Coach · Raul Llona

Substitutes

13 · D. Stamatakis

31 · R. Vlad

23 · G. Almenara

15 · E. Curbelo

22 · H. Modesto

5 · I. Fadel

26 · P. Pugliese

27 · A. Gorla

21 · J. Lazo

7 · J. Eslava

Real Madrid II

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Mestre

2 J. Fortea

5 J. Martinez

21 O. Naasei

3 D. Aguado

7 D. Yanez

16 S. Martinez

6 J. Cestero Sancho

17 A. Ciria

10 P. Fortuny

19 A. Carvajal

Coach · Julian Lopez de Lerma

Substitutes

25 · F. Q. Lorente

13 · J. Navarro Jimenez

4 · M. Rivas

23 · L. Fati

20 · R. Martin

30 · L. Navascues

14 · I. Regueira

22 · D. Mesonero

11 · A. Leiva

38 · F. Santamaria

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ibiza

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Prieto

2 P. Busto

4 J. Blasco

24 E. Ruiz

3 V. Garcia

20 P. Ortiz

6 J. Calavera

10 A. Yoldi

18 D. Astals

17 T. Valls

9 M. Justo

Coach · Raul Llona

Substitutes

13 · D. Stamatakis

31 · R. Vlad

23 · G. Almenara

15 · E. Curbelo

22 · H. Modesto

5 · I. Fadel

26 · P. Pugliese

27 · A. Gorla

21 · J. Lazo

7 · J. Eslava

Real Madrid II

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Mestre

2 J. Fortea

5 J. Martinez

21 O. Naasei

3 D. Aguado

7 D. Yanez

16 S. Martinez

6 J. Cestero Sancho

17 A. Ciria

10 P. Fortuny

19 A. Carvajal

Coach · Julian Lopez de Lerma

Substitutes

25 · F. Q. Lorente

13 · J. Navarro Jimenez

4 · M. Rivas

23 · L. Fati

20 · R. Martin

30 · L. Navascues

14 · I. Regueira

22 · D. Mesonero

11 · A. Leiva

38 · F. Santamaria

Our number · ibiza winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Ibiza a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ibiza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ibiza win	45%	42%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Real Madrid II win	26%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	51%	−9
Both teams to score	47%	56%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	68%	73%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	31%	−10
Ibiza or draw	74%	70%	+4
Ibiza clean sheet	38%	–	–
Real Madrid II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.3 8.8 4.6 1 12.5 13.2 6.2 2.0 2 9.0 8.6 4.2 3 4.1 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ibiza down, Real Madrid II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,960 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 0.75 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ibiza at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Real Madrid II away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Ibiza, 0.98 for Real Madrid II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~0.75

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~IBI 0–0 REA · REA 0–1 IBI · IBI 0–0 REA · REA 1–1 IBI

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

IBIZA

LWWLLW2–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

REAL MADRID II

DWLDLW0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	6	+6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	+9	12
4	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
5	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
6	Real Jaén	6	+3	11
7	Hércules	6	0	10
8	Antequera	6	+2	9
9	Ibiza	6	0	9
10	Huesca	6	0	9
11	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
12	Real Madrid II	6	+1	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	6	−2	7
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	6	−5	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
18	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
19	Teruel	6	−10	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	6	−10	1