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Huesca v Antequera

Huesca

1–1Full time

Antequera

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio El Alcoraz

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Huesca 1–1 Antequera HUESCA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Huesca win~~45%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.813

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Huesca win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Huesca 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Huesca v Antequera
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Antequera · On: J. Anton · Off: J. Martinez
39′We said Huesca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Huesca 1–0 Antequera
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Huesca win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
40′40′: D. Aurelio on the scoresheet for Huesca, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
40′We said Huesca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Huesca win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Huesca 1–0 Antequera
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Jimmy Suarez · Huesca
47′HALF-TIME Huesca 1–0 Antequera
53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Huesca · On: M. Garcia · Off: Jimmy Suarez
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' V. Garcia · Huesca
61′We said Huesca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Antequera · On: M. Bassele · Off: A. Zarzana
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Antequera · On: A. Gene · Off: C. Mangada
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Antequera · On: M. Parra · Off: Aguero
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Huesca · On: C. Herrera · Off: S. Enrich
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Huesca · On: I. Rodriguez · Off: Q. Fornos
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Huesca · On: D. Collado · Off: D. Aurelio
72′We said Huesca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Huesca win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
80′We said Huesca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Luismi Gutierrez · Antequera
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Antequera · On: I. Dominguez · Off: Luismi Gutierrez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Huesca · On: L. Redondo · Off: Pascu
87′We said Huesca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Huesca win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′PENALTY MISSED · 89' M. Bassele · Antequera
94′We said Huesca at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Huesca 1–1 Antequera
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Huesca win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Huesca win 98%)
95′Antequera level it on 90′ through D. Ilahude. 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' D. Ilahude · Antequera
100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' M. Parra · Antequera
FTFULL TIME Huesca 1–1 Antequera after extra time
FTHuesca 1–1 Antequera · Huesca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Huesca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Huesca 45%, draw 27%, Antequera 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Huesca v AntequeraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Huesca win45%

Draw27%

Antequera win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio El Alcoraz

RefereeG. Riu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huesca

Antequera

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Huesca	8	0	11
12	Antequera	8	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · huesca winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:14 · locked at kick-off

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make Huesca a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Huesca v Antequera~~1.47 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~10 v 12

~~The market · Huesca win~~48% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Huesca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huesca win	45%	48%	−3
Draw	27%	27%	0
Antequera win	28%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Huesca or draw	72%	75%	−3
Huesca clean sheet	33%	–	–
Antequera clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 8.0 4.7 1 10.6 12.7 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 8.9 5.0 3 4.0 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huesca down, Antequera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,981 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huesca at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Antequera away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Huesca, 1.12 for Antequera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ANT 0–2 HUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

HUESCA

LDDWDD0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

ANTEQUERA

DDWDDL1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	9	+7	20
2	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
3	Real Murcia	8	+4	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	8	0	11
11	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
12	Antequera	8	+1	10
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	8	−1	9
16	Europa Fc	9	−9	7
17	Águilas	8	−6	6
18	Teruel	8	−11	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	8	−4	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	8	−10	3