Hércules v Sant Andreu prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:45

Hércules 1–0 Sant Andreu HÉRCULES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hércules win~~45%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.461

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.376

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hércules win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hércules was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
2′Much as we predicted: Hércules was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
35′36′ and it is 0–0: I. Obeng on the scoresheet for Hércules. 0–0 · 38–38–24
42′36′ and it is 0–0: I. Obeng on the scoresheet for Hércules. 0–0 · 36–41–23
49′We published Hércules at 45%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–5
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–18–5
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Hércules win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Hércules win: 45% at kick-off, 39% now
54′SECOND HALF Hércules 1–0 Sant Andreu
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' S. Serrano · Sant Andreu
55′We published Hércules at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hércules · On: Antonin · Off: A. Escudero
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Hércules · On: N. Ben Hamed · Off: I. Obeng
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sant Andreu · On: M. Delgado · Off: Albertito
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sant Andreu · On: P. Agudin · Off: S. Serrano
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Hércules win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' B. Company · Hércules
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Hércules win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Hércules 2–0 Sant Andreu · I. Obeng
65′⚽ GOAL · 66' Hércules 2–0 Sant Andreu · N. Ben Hamed
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Hércules win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Hércules win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Hércules win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
75′🟥 RED CARD · 69' M. Rico · Hércules
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hércules · On: A. Gismera · Off: V. Narro
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hércules · On: O. Soldevila · Off: M. Puch Herrantz
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sant Andreu · On: S. Armero · Off: J. Tovar
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sant Andreu · On: P. Darbra · Off: A. G. Garcia
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sant Andreu · On: J. De Leon · Off: D. Torices
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' O. Carrasco · Sant Andreu
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Hércules · On: F. Sol · Off: A. Jimenez
FTFULL TIME Hércules 1–0 Sant Andreu
FTHércules 1–0 Sant Andreu · Hércules win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Hércules win45%

Draw29%

Sant Andreu win26%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:15

Line-ups

Hércules

Sant Andreu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hércules

Sant Andreu

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Hércules	6	0	10
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hércules

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Blazic

2 S. Vazquez

4 J. Rentero

15 Y. Cantero

23 J. Jimenez

20 A. Escudero

18 A. Fidalgo

37 M. Puch Herrantz

7 I. Obeng

11 A. Jimenez

22 V. Narro

Coach · Beto Company

Substitutes

1 · A. C. Trujillo Hernandez

5 · R. Cantero

3 · D. Lopez

21 · J. Galvan

16 · A. Gismera

14 · N. Ben Hamed

10 · O. Soldevila

12 · R. de Palmas

8 · M. Rico

19 · F. Sol

9 · A. Toril

17 · Antonin

Sant Andreu

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Juan Ramirez

15 J. Mendez

23 A. Montoro

3 A. Hernandez

21 N. Jimenez

8 Albertito

6 O. Carrasco

12 D. Torices

10 A. G. Garcia

22 S. Serrano

9 J. Tovar

Coach · Ignacio Gonzalez Saenz Jose

Substitutes

13 · I. Alvarez

20 · J. Gomez

4 · C. Blanco

5 · Lucas Vina

17 · J. Anaya

7 · P. Darbra

14 · M. Delgado

16 · P. Agudin

19 · C. Garrido

18 · S. Armero

11 · A. Bermejo

25 · J. De Leon

Our number · hércules winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Hércules a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hércules win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hércules win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Sant Andreu win	26%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−8
Hércules or draw	74%	79%	−6
Hércules clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sant Andreu clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.1 9.3 4.7 1 13.1 13.3 6.1 2 9.0 8.4 4.0 3 4.0 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hércules down, Sant Andreu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,969 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hércules at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sant Andreu away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Hércules, 0.95 for Sant Andreu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

HÉRCULES

LLWWWD1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

SANT ANDREU

LWLDWD0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	7	+6	16
2	Real Murcia	7	+4	15
3	Villarreal II	7	+6	14
4	Alcorcon	7	+8	12
5	FC Cartagena	7	+5	12
6	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
7	Antequera	7	+2	10
8	Huesca	7	0	10
9	Ibiza	7	0	10
10	Hércules	6	0	10
11	Atlético Madrid II	7	+3	9
12	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
15	Algeciras	7	−4	7
16	Europa Fc	7	−5	7
17	Águilas	7	−5	6
18	Teruel	7	−9	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	−3	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2