Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 2 › Gimnastic v Atlético Madrid II
Back

Gimnastic v Atlético Madrid II
Gimnastic
Atlético Madrid IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Nou Estadi de Tarragona
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Madrid II win at 37%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Atlético Madrid II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
- 1′KICK-OFF Gimnastic v Atlético Madrid II
- 9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' N. Van Rijn · Gimnastic
- 13′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 64–21–15
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Gimnastic 1–0 Atlético Madrid II
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Atlético Madrid II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
- 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Gimnastic win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Atlético Madrid II win 15%)
- 15′Gimnastic ahead on 14′ through Joseda. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–21–15
- 16′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–21–14
- 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' M. Gil Rodriguez · Atlético Madrid II
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
- 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' C. Segura · Gimnastic
- 42′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
- 45′SECOND HALF Gimnastic 1–0 Atlético Madrid II
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimnastic · On: F. Gil · Off: I. Athuman
- 49′HALF-TIME Gimnastic 1–0 Atlético Madrid II
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Atlético Madrid II win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
- 54′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
- 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Gimnastic 2–0 Atlético Madrid II
- 55′C. Segura scores for Gimnastic on 55′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Madrid II · On: Koke · Off: I. Kamate
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Madrid II · On: J. Aznar · Off: A. Sola
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Madrid II · On: J. Alvaro · Off: M. Gil Rodriguez
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Gimnastic · On: P. Marco · Off: S. Bakis
- 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' R. Hueso · Atlético Madrid II
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gimnastic · On: J. Prohens · Off: C. Segura
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gimnastic · On: T. Gabarri · Off: M. Babanzilla
- 81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–10–1
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Gimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II
- 82′81′: Koke on the scoresheet for Atlético Madrid II, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atlético Madrid II · On: M. Cuellar · Off: M. Domenech
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Atlético Madrid II · On: D. Munoz · Off: E. Alcaniz
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' F. Gil · Gimnastic
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gimnastic · On: V. Villote · Off: A. Almansa
- 95′Full time, 2–1. We called Atlético Madrid II at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–1 · 100–0–0
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' V. Villote · Gimnastic
- FTFULL TIME Gimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II
- FTGimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II · Atlético Madrid II win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Atlético Madrid II just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Gimnastic 36%, draw 27%, Atlético Madrid II 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Gimnastic win36%
Atlético Madrid II win37%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00
RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8
VenueNou Estadi de Tarragona
RefereeM. B. Torres
Match timeline
All events
GimnasticMIN
Atlético Madrid IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gimnastic
Atlético Madrid II
Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Atlético Madrid II a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic win | 36% | 36% | 0 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Atlético Madrid II win | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 55% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 35% | −8 |
| Gimnastic or draw | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Gimnastic clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Atlético Madrid II clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2020/21Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept
GIMNASTIC
ATLÉTICO MADRID II
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Cartagena | 8 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 7 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 8 | +8 | 13 |
| 6 | Ibiza | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Hércules | 8 | −1 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Jaén | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Madrid II | 8 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | Huesca | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Antequera | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Algeciras | 8 | −2 | 10 |
| 13 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 14 | Sant Andreu | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 15 | Gimnastic | 7 | −2 | 8 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 8 | −8 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 8 | −6 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 8 | −11 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | −3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | −10 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Villarreal II
Zaragoza
FC Cartagena
Real Murcia
Alcorcon
Ibiza
Hércules
Real Jaén
Real Madrid II
Huesca
Antequera
Algeciras
Sant Andreu
Europa Fc
Águilas
Teruel
Rayo Majadahonda
Juventud Torremolinos