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Model 1.2

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Gimnastic v Atlético Madrid II

Gimnastic
2–1Full time
Atlético Madrid II

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Gimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II ATLÉTICO MADRID II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Atlético Madrid II win37%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.623
The market’s Brier score0.613

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Madrid II win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Atlético Madrid II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Gimnastic v Atlético Madrid II
  4. 9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' N. Van Rijn · Gimnastic
  5. 13′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 64–21–15
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Gimnastic 1–0 Atlético Madrid II
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Atlético Madrid II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
  8. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Gimnastic win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Atlético Madrid II win 15%)
  9. 15′Gimnastic ahead on 14′ through Joseda. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–21–15
  10. 16′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–21–14
  11. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' M. Gil Rodriguez · Atlético Madrid II
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
  13. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' C. Segura · Gimnastic
  14. 42′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Gimnastic 1–0 Atlético Madrid II
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimnastic · On: F. Gil · Off: I. Athuman
  17. 49′HALF-TIME Gimnastic 1–0 Atlético Madrid II
  18. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Atlético Madrid II win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  19. 54′We said Atlético Madrid II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  20. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Gimnastic 2–0 Atlético Madrid II
  21. 55′C. Segura scores for Gimnastic on 55′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  22. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Madrid II · On: Koke · Off: I. Kamate
  23. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Madrid II · On: J. Aznar · Off: A. Sola
  24. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlético Madrid II · On: J. Alvaro · Off: M. Gil Rodriguez
  25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Gimnastic · On: P. Marco · Off: S. Bakis
  26. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' R. Hueso · Atlético Madrid II
  27. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gimnastic · On: J. Prohens · Off: C. Segura
  28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gimnastic · On: T. Gabarri · Off: M. Babanzilla
  29. 81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  30. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Gimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II
  31. 82′81′: Koke on the scoresheet for Atlético Madrid II, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atlético Madrid II · On: M. Cuellar · Off: M. Domenech
  33. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Atlético Madrid II · On: D. Munoz · Off: E. Alcaniz
  34. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' F. Gil · Gimnastic
  35. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gimnastic · On: V. Villote · Off: A. Almansa
  36. 95′Full time, 2–1. We called Atlético Madrid II at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' V. Villote · Gimnastic
  38. FTFULL TIME Gimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II
  39. FTGimnastic 2–1 Atlético Madrid II · Atlético Madrid II win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atlético Madrid II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimnastic 36%, draw 27%, Atlético Madrid II 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Gimnastic v Atlético Madrid IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gimnastic win36%
Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

VenueNou Estadi de Tarragona

RefereeM. B. Torres

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimnastic

Atlético Madrid II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Atlético Madrid II7+39
15Gimnastic7−28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético madrid ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market36%
Us37%
Market36%

We make Atlético Madrid II a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gimnastic v Atlético Madrid II1.30 – 1.33
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 8 v 915 v 13
The market · Atlético Madrid II win36% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 14:30
Our probability · Atlético Madrid II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gimnastic win36%36%0
Draw27%27%0
Atlético Madrid II win37%36%+1
Over 2.5 goals49%55%−6
Both teams to score54%61%−7
Over 1.5 goals74%78%−4
Over 3.5 goals27%35%−8
Gimnastic or draw63%64%−1
Gimnastic clean sheet27%––
Atlético Madrid II clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 7.9 9.0 6.4 2.8 1 8.9 12.8 8.2 3.6 2 6.1 8.0 5.3 2.4 3 2.7 3.5 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnastic down, Atlético Madrid II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsATL 1–2 GIM · GIM 0–3 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

GIMNASTIC

DWLLLD0–0 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

ATLÉTICO MADRID II

WWDLLD2–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 4–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Villarreal II8+817
2Zaragoza7+616
3FC Cartagena8+815
4Real Murcia7+415
5Alcorcon8+813
6Ibiza8+113
7Hércules8−113
8Real Jaén7+312
9Real Madrid II8+212
10Huesca8011
11Antequera8+110
12Algeciras8−210
13Atlético Madrid II7+39
14Sant Andreu7−18
15Gimnastic7−28
16Europa Fc8−87
17Águilas8−66
18Teruel8−115
19Rayo Majadahonda7−34
20Juventud Torremolinos7−102

The competition's standings before kick-off.