FC Cartagena v Europa Fc prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

FC Cartagena 3–0 Europa Fc FC CARTAGENA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Cartagena win~~48%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.401

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Cartagena win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Cartagena 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–25
1′KICK-OFF FC Cartagena v Europa Fc
11′We said FC Cartagena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' FC Cartagena 1–0 Europa Fc
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' FC Cartagena win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
13′12′: P. De Blasis on the scoresheet for FC Cartagena, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' FC Cartagena win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′SECOND HALF FC Cartagena 1–0 Europa Fc
46′HALF-TIME FC Cartagena 1–0 Europa Fc
50′We said FC Cartagena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
51′We said FC Cartagena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' FC Cartagena 2–0 Europa Fc
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' FC Cartagena win: 48% at kick-off, 96% now
52′FC Cartagena ahead on 52′ through M. Moreno. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
53′We said FC Cartagena at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
53′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' FC Cartagena 3–0 Europa Fc
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' FC Cartagena win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
54′M. Moreno scores for FC Cartagena on 54′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Europa Fc · On: Tito Tolosa · Off: V. Morales Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Europa Fc · On: A. Exposito · Off: E. Coto
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Europa Fc · On: A. Padillo · Off: J. Mascaro
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Cartagena · On: R. Richarte · Off: R. Dacosta
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Cartagena · On: B. Ramirez · Off: I. Ribeiro
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Tito Tolosa · Europa Fc
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Europa Fc · On: M. Angles Sanchez · Off: F. Ribeiro
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' A. Exposito · Europa Fc
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Cartagena · On: Ribeiro · Off: M. Moreno
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Cartagena · On: P. Claveria · Off: T. Villa
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Europa Fc · On: S. Pallares · Off: A. Teto
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Cartagena · On: A. Mohamed · Off: P. De Blasis
95′3–0 at the end. Our 48% on FC Cartagena comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME FC Cartagena 3–0 Europa Fc
FTFC Cartagena 3–0 Europa Fc · FC Cartagena win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Cartagena are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Cartagena 48%, draw 27%, Europa Fc 24%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on FC Cartagena v Europa FcBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

FC Cartagena win48%

Draw27%

Europa Fc win24%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova

Line-ups

FC Cartagena

Europa Fc

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Cartagena

Europa Fc

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FC Cartagena	7	+5	12
16	Europa Fc	7	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Cartagena

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Garcia

18 D. Perejon

4 R. Serrano

5 I. Baz

22 N. Martinez

8 P. De Blasis

15 J. Jules

14 T. Villa

10 I. Ribeiro

17 R. Dacosta

16 M. Moreno

Coach · Inigo Velez

Substitutes

1 · J. Reyes

2 · M. Jurado

19 · A. Corral

24 · L. Lohr

3 · G. Kelo

6 · P. Claveria

31 · I. Abellan

11 · B. Ramirez

9 · Ribeiro

7 · A. Mohamed

20 · R. Richarte

Europa Fc

Formation not confirmed

13 N. Ruiz

2 E. Coto

4 A. Cano

3 M. Sgro

15 V. Edo

14 V. Morales

8 Gori

19 J. Mascaro

18 A. Teto

7 F. Ribeiro

9 K. Noureddine

Coach · Luis Blanco

Substitutes

1 · L. Madrigal

5 · A. Campeny

21 · S. Pallares

16 · G. Cardelus

10 · M. Angles Sanchez

23 · A. Tolosa

22 · A. Padillo

11 · A. Exposito

Our number · fc cartagena winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

48% The market58%

Us48%

~~Market~~58%

We make FC Cartagena a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Cartagena v Europa Fc~~1.46 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~6 v 16

~~The market · FC Cartagena win~~58% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Cartagena win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Cartagena win	48%	58%	−10
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Europa Fc win	24%	17%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	47%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
FC Cartagena or draw	76%	83%	−7
FC Cartagena clean sheet	39%	–	–
Europa Fc clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.7 8.1 4.1 1 12.6 12.8 5.9 2 9.5 8.9 4.2 3 4.7 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Cartagena down, Europa Fc across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Cartagena at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Europa Fc away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for FC Cartagena, 0.95 for Europa Fc. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCC 2–2 EUR · EUR 2–0 FCC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

FC CARTAGENA

DDLWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

EUROPA FC

DLLWLW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	7	+6	16
2	Real Murcia	7	+4	15
3	Villarreal II	7	+6	14
4	Hércules	7	+1	13
5	Alcorcon	7	+8	12
6	FC Cartagena	7	+5	12
7	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
8	Antequera	7	+2	10
9	Huesca	7	0	10
10	Ibiza	7	0	10
11	Atlético Madrid II	7	+3	9
12	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
13	Sant Andreu	7	−1	8
14	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
15	Algeciras	7	−4	7
16	Europa Fc	7	−5	7
17	Águilas	7	−5	6
18	Teruel	7	−9	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	−3	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2