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Europa Fc v Zaragoza

Europa Fc

0–1Full time

Zaragoza

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · FRI 23 OCT · Can Drago

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:58

Europa Fc 0–1 Zaragoza EUROPA FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Europa Fc win~~40%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.660

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.372

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Europa Fc win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Europa Fc 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Europa Fc v Zaragoza
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Europa Fc win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF Europa Fc 0–0 Zaragoza
46′HALF-TIME Europa Fc 0–0 Zaragoza
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Europa Fc win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–45–26
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Zaragoza · On: P. Sans · Off: O. Urena
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Zaragoza · On: Jamelli · Off: Y. Saidu
57′We said Europa Fc at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–46–25
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Europa Fc · On: J. Mascaro · Off: A. Teto
66′We said Europa Fc at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Zaragoza · On: J. Delgado · Off: A. Herrera
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Europa Fc win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
73′We said Europa Fc at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–17
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' L. Terrer · Zaragoza
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Europa Fc · On: Y. Zayzoun · Off: K. Noureddine
79′We said Europa Fc at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
79′We said Europa Fc at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zaragoza · On: M. A. Cuenca · Off: J. Jardi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zaragoza · On: J. Tobajas · Off: R. Pereira
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Europa Fc · On: A. Tolosa · Off: A. Padillo
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Europa Fc 0–1 Zaragoza
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Europa Fc win: 40% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Zaragoza win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 73%)
80′Zaragoza ahead on 80′ through D. Gonzalez. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Europa Fc win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Europa Fc · On: A. Exposito · Off: V. Morales
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Europa Fc · On: J. F. Cadenas · Off: E. Coto
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' J. Tobajas · Zaragoza
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' A. Tolosa · Europa Fc
97′0–1 at the end. Our 40% on Europa Fc misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Europa Fc 0–1 Zaragoza
FTEuropa Fc 0–1 Zaragoza · Europa Fc win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Europa Fc are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Europa Fc 40%, draw 26%, Zaragoza 34%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Europa Fc v ZaragozaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Europa Fc win40%

Draw26%

Zaragoza win34%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:15

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

VenueCan Drago

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Europa Fc

Zaragoza

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Zaragoza	8	+6	17
16	Europa Fc	8	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · europa fc winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market24%

Us40%

~~Market~~24%

We make Europa Fc a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Europa Fc v Zaragoza~~1.46 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 17~~16 v 2

~~The market · Europa Fc win~~24% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Europa Fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Europa Fc win	40%	24%	+16
Draw	26%	26%	0
Zaragoza win	34%	50%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	53%	50%	+3
Both teams to score	57%	53%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	30%	+1
Europa Fc or draw	66%	50%	+16
Europa Fc clean sheet	27%	–	–
Zaragoza clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.8 7.7 5.5 2.5 1 8.4 12.3 7.8 3.5 2 6.5 8.5 5.7 2.6 3 3.2 4.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Europa Fc down, Zaragoza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,980 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Europa Fc at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zaragoza away: 2.00 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Europa Fc, 1.34 for Zaragoza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

EUROPA FC

LLWLWL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

ZARAGOZA

WWWWDD4–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 4–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
2	Zaragoza	8	+6	17
3	Real Murcia	8	+4	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	8	0	11
11	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
12	Antequera	8	+1	10
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	8	−1	9
16	Europa Fc	8	−8	7
17	Águilas	8	−6	6
18	Teruel	8	−11	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	8	−4	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	8	−10	3