Europa Fc v Algeciras prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Europa Fc 2–1 Algeciras EUROPA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Europa Fc win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Europa Fc win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Europa Fc 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
2′Little has changed for our model: Europa Fc 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
22′16′ and it is 1–1: K. Noureddine on the scoresheet for Europa Fc. 1–1 · 43–31–26
23′16′ and it is 1–1: K. Noureddine on the scoresheet for Europa Fc. 1–1 · 43–31–26
45′Europa Fc ahead on 46′ through A. Cano. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–18–5
63′Europa Fc ahead on 46′ through A. Cano. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
67′We said Europa Fc at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' J. Marquez · Algeciras
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Algeciras · On: J. Riley · Off: R. Rubio
87′We said Europa Fc at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' A. Campeny · Europa Fc
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Europa Fc 2–2 Algeciras · A. Cano
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Europa Fc · On: V. Edo · Off: F. Ribeiro
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 96' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 96' Europa Fc win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
FTFULL TIME Europa Fc 2–1 Algeciras
FTEuropa Fc 2–1 Algeciras · Europa Fc win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Europa Fc win46%

Draw27%

Algeciras win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:15

VenueCan Drago

Line-ups

Europa Fc

Algeciras

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Europa Fc

Algeciras

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
19	Europa Fc	6	−6	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Lyon striker Loïs Openda likely to miss Europa League clash with Crystal PalaceGet French Football News · 1 hour ago · Lyon, Europa Fc, Crystal Palace FEATURE | Freiburg’s unbeaten start shows their recent success is no coincidenceGet German Football News · 8 hours ago · SC Freiburg, Europa Fc

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Europa Fc

Formation not confirmed

13 N. Ruiz

4 A. Cano

3 M. Sgro

5 A. Campeny

2 E. Coto

14 V. Morales

8 Gori

7 F. Ribeiro

19 J. Mascaro

9 K. Noureddine

18 A. Teto

Coach · Luis Blanco

Substitutes

1 · L. Madrigal

15 · V. Edo

21 · S. Pallares

20 · P. Cancelo

30 · J. F. Cadenas

16 · G. Cardelus

10 · M. Angles Sanchez

23 · Tito Tolosa

22 · A. Padillo

17 · Y. Zayzoun

11 · A. Exposito

Algeciras

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Moreno

3 J. Marquez

5 A. Gomez

2 F. Carmona

11 T. Sanchez

10 D. Garrido

6 O. Castro

20 J. Alamo

17 J. Aviles

9 R. Rubio

18 P. Martinez

Coach · Adrian Colunga

Substitutes

13 · T. Paradowski

15 · V. Ruiz

4 · A. Coch

22 · P. A. Adot Barandiaran

14 · D. Almeida

8 · I. Turrillo

19 · D. Y. Iglesias

23 · J. Riley

7 · J. Garcia

Our number · europa fc winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Europa Fc a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · europa fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 37% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Europa Fc win	46%	36%	+10
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Algeciras win	27%	34%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	48%	44%	+4
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	68%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	26%	24%	+2
Europa Fc or draw	73%	66%	+7
Europa Fc clean sheet	34%	–	–
Algeciras clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.3 7.7 4.4 1 10.9 12.7 6.5 2.4 2 8.5 9.1 4.9 3 4.3 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Europa Fc down, Algeciras across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,965 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Europa Fc at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Algeciras away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Europa Fc, 1.08 for Algeciras. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EUR 0–3 ALG · ALG 2–3 EUR

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

EUROPA FC

LDLLWL0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

ALGECIRAS

LLLDWW1–3 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	7	+6	14
3	Alcorcon	7	+8	12
4	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
5	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
6	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
7	Huesca	7	0	10
8	Ibiza	7	0	10
9	Hércules	6	0	10
10	Antequera	6	+2	9
11	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	7	−5	6
17	Teruel	7	−9	5
18	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
19	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2