Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 2 › Atlético Madrid II v Zaragoza

Atlético Madrid II v Zaragoza

Atlético Madrid II

4–4Full time

Zaragoza

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Atlético Madrid II 4–4 Zaragoza ATLÉTICO MADRID II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Madrid II win~~50%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.864

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 47 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Madrid II win at 50%.
2′Much as we predicted: Atlético Madrid II was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
22′Atlético Madrid II ahead on 8′ through I. Kamate. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
42′E. D. Espiau Hernandez scores for Zaragoza on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–37–23
45′E. D. Espiau Hernandez scores for Zaragoza on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–38–23
62′56′ and it is 2–1: M. Domenech on the scoresheet for Atlético Madrid II. 2–1 · 81–16–3
71′Rubo scores for Zaragoza on 68′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 24–61–15
84′76′ and it is 3–2: M. Gil Rodriguez on the scoresheet for Atlético Madrid II. 3–2 · 94–6–0
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Atlético Madrid II win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 24% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Atlético Madrid II win 24%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 24% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Atlético Madrid II win 24%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Atlético Madrid II win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Atlético Madrid II win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 24% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Atlético Madrid II win 24%)
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Atlético Madrid II 4–2 Zaragoza · D. Munoz
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Ibai · Zaragoza
97′🟨 YELLOW · 98' T. Seidu · Atlético Madrid II
98′⚽ GOAL · 98' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · D. Munoz
99′⚽ GOAL · 99' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · Rubo
101′90′ and it is 4–4: J. Jardi on the scoresheet for Zaragoza. 4–4 · 0–100–0
101′⚽ GOAL · 8' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · I. Kamate (assist R. Hueso)
101′⚽ GOAL · 24' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · E. D. Espiau Hernandez (assist Jamelli)
101′🟨 YELLOW · 31' E. Alcaniz · Atlético Madrid II
101′🟨 YELLOW · 39' O. Urena · Zaragoza
101′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zaragoza · On: H. Barrachina · Off: O. Urena
101′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Atlético Madrid II · On: A. Lis · Off: A. Yaakobishvili
101′⚽ GOAL · 56' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · M. Domenech (assist R. Hueso)
101′PENALTY MISSED · 66' Jamelli · Zaragoza
101′⚽ GOAL · 68' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · Rubo (assist E. D. Espiau Hernandez)
101′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Zaragoza · On: J. Delgado · Off: E. D. Espiau Hernandez
101′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Zaragoza · On: P. Sans · Off: Jamelli
101′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atlético Madrid II · On: J. Alvaro · Off: T. Helguera
101′⚽ GOAL · 76' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · M. Gil Rodriguez (assist J. Alvaro)
101′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atlético Madrid II · On: T. Seidu · Off: M. Domenech
101′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atlético Madrid II · On: D. Munoz · Off: I. Kamate
101′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atlético Madrid II · On: Koke · Off: E. Alcaniz
101′🟨 YELLOW · 81' D. Munoz · Atlético Madrid II
101′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Zaragoza · On: M. A. Cuenca · Off: R. Pereira
101′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Zaragoza · On: Y. Saidu · Off: L. Terrer
101′⚽ GOAL · 88' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · D. Munoz
101′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Ibai · Zaragoza
101′🟨 YELLOW · 98' T. Seidu · Atlético Madrid II
101′⚽ GOAL · 99' Atlético Madrid II 4–3 Zaragoza · Rubo (assist J. Jardi)
101′⚽ GOAL · 101' Atlético Madrid II 4–4 Zaragoza · Rubo
101′⚽ GOAL · 102' Atlético Madrid II 4–4 Zaragoza · J. Jardi
101′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 101' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 0% now
101′THE CALL SWINGS · 101' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Atlético Madrid II win 0%)
101′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 101' Atlético Madrid II win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
101′THE CALL SWINGS · 101' Atlético Madrid II win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
FTFULL TIME Atlético Madrid II 4–4 Zaragoza
FTAtlético Madrid II 4–4 Zaragoza · Atlético Madrid II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atlético Madrid II win50%

Draw25%

Zaragoza win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

Line-ups

Atlético Madrid II

Zaragoza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atlético Madrid II

Zaragoza

9Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Time to rise? Ranking European football's sleeping giantsBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Real, Zaragoza

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atlético Madrid II

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Astralaga

14 R. Hueso

29 M. Gil Rodriguez

4 A. Yaakobishvili

22 A. Sola

16 T. Helguera

15 D. Garcia

20 E. Alcaniz

21 I. Kamate

10 M. Cubo

19 M. Domenech

Coach · Fernando Torres

Substitutes

1 · M. de Luis

31 · I. Coulibaly

2 · S. Diez

5 · C. Gimenez

27 · J. Aznar

35 · A. Lis

32 · P. Pan Abajo

18 · T. Seidu

6 · D. Munoz

17 · J. Alvaro

38 · M. Cuellar

7 · Koke

Zaragoza

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Westerveld

25 M. Sangalli

14 Rubo

21 D. Gonzalez

3 R. Pereira

16 L. Terrer

6 P. Ademo

11 J. Jardi

19 Jamelli

23 O. Urena

22 E. D. Espiau Hernandez

Coach · Perez Ibai Gomez

Substitutes

13 · A. Pena

18 · S. Escudero

4 · H. Barrachina

5 · Tachi

2 · J. Gabilondo

8 · A. Herrera

15 · Y. Saidu

10 · H. Pinilla

26 · D. Monzon

7 · M. A. Cuenca

9 · P. Sans

20 · J. Delgado

Our number · atlético madrid ii winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

50% The market32%

Us50%

~~Market~~32%

We make Atlético Madrid II a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlético madrid ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Madrid II win	50%	32%	+17
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Zaragoza win	25%	41%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Atlético Madrid II or draw	75%	59%	+16
Atlético Madrid II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Zaragoza clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.1 6.6 3.9 1 10.2 12.0 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 9.4 5.1 3 4.8 5.2 2.8 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Madrid II down, Zaragoza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,965 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Atlético Madrid II at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zaragoza away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Atlético Madrid II, 1.10 for Zaragoza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

ATLÉTICO MADRID II

DWWDLL2–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–3

ZARAGOZA

LWWWWW0–2 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	7	+6	14
3	Alcorcon	7	+8	12
4	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
5	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
6	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
7	Huesca	7	0	10
8	Ibiza	7	0	10
9	Hércules	6	0	10
10	Antequera	6	+2	9
11	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	7	−5	6
17	Teruel	7	−9	5
18	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
19	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2