Atlético Madrid II v Real Jaén prediction · Primera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlético Madrid IIDrawReal Jaén

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlético Madrid II 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Madrid II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Madrid II 51%, draw 25%, Real Jaén 24%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Madrid II v Real JaénBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Madrid II win51%

Draw25%

Real Jaén win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

RefereeA. Clemente Ortuno

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Madrid II

Real Jaén

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético madrid ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Atlético Madrid II a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Madrid II v Real Jaén~~1.67 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 15~~14 v 5

~~The market · Atlético Madrid II win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlético Madrid II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Madrid II win	51%	51%	0
Draw	25%	25%	0
Real Jaén win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	59%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	38%	−8
Atlético Madrid II or draw	76%	76%	0
Atlético Madrid II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Real Jaén clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.1 6.5 3.7 1 10.3 11.9 6.1 2.2 2 8.9 9.5 5.1 3 5.0 5.3 2.8 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Madrid II down, Real Jaén across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,985 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Atlético Madrid II at home: 3.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Jaén away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Atlético Madrid II, 1.07 for Real Jaén. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

ATLÉTICO MADRID II

WDLLDL4–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 1–2

REAL JAÉN

WWLDDW1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	9	+7	20
2	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
3	Real Murcia	9	+3	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	9	0	12
11	Antequera	9	+1	11
12	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	9	−2	9
16	Rayo Majadahonda	9	−3	7
17	Europa Fc	9	−9	7
18	Águilas	8	−6	6
19	Juventud Torremolinos	9	−9	6
20	Teruel	8	−11	5