Atlético Madrid II v Alcorcon prediction · Primera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlético Madrid IIDrawAlcorcon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlético Madrid II 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Madrid II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Madrid II 49%, draw 25%, Alcorcon 25%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Madrid II v AlcorconBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Madrid II win49%

Draw25%

Alcorcon win25%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Madrid II

Alcorcon

12Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético madrid ii winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Atlético Madrid II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Madrid II v Alcorcon~~1.64 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~14 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Madrid II win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Alcorcon win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Atlético Madrid II or draw	75%	–	–
Atlético Madrid II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Alcorcon clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 6.7 4.0 1 10.0 12.0 6.4 2.4 2 8.6 9.4 5.2 3 4.7 5.2 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Madrid II down, Alcorcon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,985 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Madrid II at home: 3.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alcorcon away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Atlético Madrid II, 1.11 for Alcorcon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–0 ALC · ALC 0–1 ATL · ATL 2–1 ALC · ALC 2–3 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

ATLÉTICO MADRID II

WDLLDL4–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 1–2

ALCORCON

DWWWLD1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	9	+7	20
2	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
3	Real Murcia	9	+3	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	9	0	12
11	Antequera	9	+1	11
12	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	9	−2	9
16	Rayo Majadahonda	9	−3	7
17	Europa Fc	9	−9	7
18	Águilas	8	−6	6
19	Juventud Torremolinos	9	−9	6
20	Teruel	8	−11	5