Antequera v FC Cartagena prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Antequera 1–1 FC Cartagena ANTEQUERA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Antequera win~~45%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Antequera win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Antequera 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Antequera v FC Cartagena
8′Little has changed for our model: Antequera 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–27
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Antequera 1–0 FC Cartagena
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Antequera 1–0 FC Cartagena · A. Gene
45′SECOND HALF Antequera 1–0 FC Cartagena
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Cartagena · On: T. Villa · Off: I. Ribeiro
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Cartagena · On: D. Perejon · Off: M. Jurado
46′45′ and it is 1–0: A. Gene on the scoresheet for Antequera. 1–0 · 77–18–5
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
47′45′ and it is 1–0: A. Gene on the scoresheet for Antequera. 1–0 · 77–18–5
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 38% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' J. Anton · Antequera
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Antequera win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' FC Cartagena · On: N. Martinez · Off: R. Dacosta
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Antequera · On: I. Dominguez · Off: M. Parra
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Antequera · On: A. Zarzana · Off: A. Gene
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Cartagena · On: M. Moreno · Off: Ribeiro
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Antequera 1–1 FC Cartagena · A. Gene
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Antequera 1–1 FC Cartagena · N. Martinez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Antequera · On: R. Alarcon · Off: M. Bassele Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Antequera · On: Aguero · Off: J. Anton Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' I. Perez · Antequera
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Cartagena · On: P. De Blasis · Off: R. Richarte
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Antequera · On: J. Aspra · Off: C. Mangada
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' D. Perejon · FC Cartagena
FTFULL TIME Antequera 1–1 FC Cartagena
FTAntequera 1–1 FC Cartagena · Antequera win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Antequera win45%

Draw28%

FC Cartagena win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Line-ups

Antequera

FC Cartagena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Antequera

FC Cartagena

7Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
10	Antequera	6	+2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Antequera

Formation not confirmed

13 D. Alcover

2 J. Anton

6 A. Quintana

4 I. Perez

22 D. Cuenca

19 M. Bassele

18 C. Mangada

10 Luismi Gutierrez

11 M. Parra

7 D. Ilahude

16 A. Gene

Coach · Alberto Aguilar

Substitutes

1 · F. Perez Morillo

29 · S. Almagro

24 · R. Alarcon

8 · R. Diz Acena

20 · J. Aspra

21 · D. Hadeed

17 · A. Zarzana

23 · I. Dominguez

14 · Aguero

FC Cartagena

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Garcia

2 M. Jurado

4 R. Serrano

24 L. Lohr

19 A. Corral

15 J. Jules

6 P. Claveria

20 R. Richarte

10 I. Ribeiro

17 R. Dacosta

9 Ribeiro

Coach · Inigo Velez

Substitutes

1 · J. Reyes

22 · N. Martinez

18 · D. Perejon

5 · I. Baz

8 · P. De Blasis

14 · T. Villa

31 · I. Abellan

11 · B. Ramirez

16 · M. Moreno

Our number · antequera winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

45% The market37%

Us45%

~~Market~~37%

We make Antequera a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · antequera win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antequera win	45%	37%	+8
Draw	28%	30%	−2
FC Cartagena win	26%	33%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−6
Antequera or draw	74%	67%	+6
Antequera clean sheet	38%	–	–
FC Cartagena clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.3 8.8 4.6 1 12.5 13.2 6.2 2.1 2 8.9 8.6 4.2 3 4.1 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antequera down, FC Cartagena across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,965 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Antequera at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Cartagena away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Antequera, 0.98 for FC Cartagena. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCC 1–0 ANT · ANT 0–0 FCC

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

ANTEQUERA

WLDDWD3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2

FC CARTAGENA

WDDLWW3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	7	+6	14
3	Alcorcon	7	+8	12
4	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
5	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
6	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
7	Huesca	7	0	10
8	Ibiza	7	0	10
9	Hércules	6	0	10
10	Antequera	6	+2	9
11	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	7	−5	6
17	Teruel	7	−9	5
18	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
19	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2