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Algeciras v Real Madrid II

Algeciras

15:30Upcoming

Real Madrid II

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Nuevo Mirador

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlgecirasDrawReal Madrid II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Algeciras 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Algeciras are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Algeciras 38%, draw 29%, Real Madrid II 33%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Algeciras v Real Madrid IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Algeciras win38%

Draw29%

Real Madrid II win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Nuevo Mirador

RefereeM. Garcia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Algeciras

Real Madrid II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · algeciras winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make Algeciras a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Algeciras v Real Madrid II~~1.26 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~13 v 9

~~The market · Algeciras win~~30% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Algeciras win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Algeciras win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Real Madrid II win	33%	41%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Algeciras or draw	67%	59%	+8
Algeciras clean sheet	32%	–	–
Real Madrid II clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.7 9.8 6.0 2.3 1 10.8 13.4 7.4 2.9 2 7.1 8.1 4.6 3 3.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Algeciras down, Real Madrid II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,985 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Algeciras at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Madrid II away: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Algeciras, 1.15 for Real Madrid II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALG 1–4 REA · REA 1–1 ALG · ALG 3–0 REA · REA 1–2 ALG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 11 Sept

ALGECIRAS

LDWWLW2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

REAL MADRID II

LDLWDW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	9	+7	20
2	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
3	Real Murcia	9	+3	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	9	0	12
11	Antequera	9	+1	11
12	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	9	−2	9
16	Rayo Majadahonda	9	−3	7
17	Europa Fc	9	−9	7
18	Águilas	8	−6	6
19	Juventud Torremolinos	9	−9	6
20	Teruel	8	−11	5