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Model 1.2

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Algeciras v Hércules

Algeciras
2–0Full time
Hércules

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31
Algeciras 2–0 Hércules ALGECIRAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Algeciras win42%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.498
The market’s Brier score0.651

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Algeciras win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Algeciras was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Algeciras v Hércules
  4. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' A. Coch · Algeciras
  5. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' A. Jimenez · Hércules
  6. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' A. Fidalgo · Hércules
  7. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Algeciras win 35%)
  8. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' J. Marquez · Algeciras
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Algeciras 0–0 Hércules
  10. 46′HALF-TIME Algeciras 0–0 Hércules
  11. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Algeciras win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  12. 49′We published Algeciras at 42%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  13. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Algeciras 1–0 Hércules
  14. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Algeciras win: 42% at kick-off, 77% now
  15. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Algeciras win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
  16. 50′R. Rubio scores for Algeciras on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
  17. 51′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–18–4
  18. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' F. Carmona · Algeciras
  19. 86′84′: J. Aviles on the scoresheet for Algeciras, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hércules · On: Antonin · Off: I. Obeng
  21. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Algeciras · On: A. Gomez · Off: A. Coch
  22. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 63' V. Narro · Hércules
  23. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hércules · On: O. Soldevila · Off: A. Jimenez
  24. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hércules · On: A. Escudero · Off: V. Narro
  25. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 67' P. A. Adot Barandiaran · Algeciras
  26. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Algeciras · On: J. Riley · Off: P. Martinez
  27. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Algeciras · On: O. Castro · Off: I. Turrillo
  28. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 76' O. Castro · Algeciras
  29. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hércules · On: H. Abdelilah · Off: A. Fidalgo
  30. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hércules · On: F. Sol · Off: N. Ben Hamed
  31. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Algeciras · On: J. Aviles · Off: D. Y. Iglesias
  32. 86′⚽ GOAL · 84' Algeciras 2–0 Hércules · J. Aviles (assist J. Garcia)
  33. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Algeciras win: 42% at kick-off, over 99% now
  34. 88′We published Algeciras at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  35. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' F. Sol · Hércules
  36. 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Hércules
  37. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' F. Sol · Hércules
  38. 98′A red card for Hércules on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  39. FTFULL TIME Algeciras 2–0 Hércules
  40. FTAlgeciras 2–0 Hércules · Algeciras win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Algeciras are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Algeciras 42%, draw 29%, Hércules 28%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Algeciras v HérculesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Algeciras win42%
Draw29%
Hércules win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Nuevo Mirador

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Algeciras

Hércules

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Hércules7+113
15Algeciras7−47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · algeciras winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:46 · locked at kick-off
42% The market34%
Us42%
Market34%

We make Algeciras a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Algeciras v Hércules1.27 – 0.98
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 4 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 7 v 1315 v 6
The market · Algeciras win34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 19:29
Our probability · Algeciras win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Algeciras win42%34%+8
Draw29%30%−1
Hércules win28%36%−8
Over 2.5 goals39%42%−3
Both teams to score45%49%−4
Over 1.5 goals66%66%0
Over 3.5 goals19%22%−3
Algeciras or draw72%64%+8
Algeciras clean sheet38%––
Hércules clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 11.2 9.8 5.1 1 12.8 13.5 6.4 2.1 2 8.4 8.2 4.0 3 3.6 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Algeciras down, Hércules across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2019/20
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsALG 0–2 HER · HER 0–1 ALG · HER 1–2 ALG · ALG 2–3 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 4 Sept

ALGECIRAS

LLDWWL1–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

HÉRCULES

LWWWDW0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zaragoza7+616
2FC Cartagena8+815
3Real Murcia7+415
4Villarreal II7+614
5Alcorcon8+813
6Hércules7+113
7Real Jaén7+312
8Huesca8011
9Antequera7+210
10Ibiza7010
11Atlético Madrid II7+39
12Real Madrid II7+19
13Sant Andreu7−18
14Gimnastic7−28
15Algeciras7−47
16Europa Fc8−87
17Águilas7−56
18Teruel7−95
19Rayo Majadahonda7−34
20Juventud Torremolinos7−102

The competition's standings before kick-off.