Alcorcon v Ibiza prediction · Primera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlcorconDrawIbiza

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alcorcon 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alcorcon are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcorcon 43%, draw 29%, Ibiza 28%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Alcorcon v IbizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Alcorcon win43%

Draw29%

Ibiza win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Municipal de Santo Domingo

RefereeN. Holgueras Castellanos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcorcon

Ibiza

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alcorcon winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make Alcorcon a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alcorcon v Ibiza~~1.32 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 13~~6 v 7

~~The market · Alcorcon win~~50% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alcorcon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alcorcon win	43%	50%	−7
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Ibiza win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Alcorcon or draw	72%	77%	−5
Alcorcon clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ibiza clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.4 9.3 5.0 1 12.3 13.4 6.5 2.2 2 8.4 8.4 4.3 3 3.7 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alcorcon down, Ibiza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,985 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alcorcon at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ibiza away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Alcorcon, 1.01 for Ibiza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~IBI 2–2 ALC · ALC 2–2 IBI · IBI 2–0 ALC · ALC 1–2 IBI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

ALCORCON

DWWWLD1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

IBIZA

WLLWDW2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	9	+7	20
2	Villarreal II	8	+8	17
3	Real Murcia	9	+3	16
4	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
5	Real Jaén	8	+4	15
6	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
7	Ibiza	8	+1	13
8	Hércules	8	−1	13
9	Real Madrid II	8	+2	12
10	Huesca	9	0	12
11	Antequera	9	+1	11
12	Gimnastic	8	−1	11
13	Algeciras	8	−2	10
14	Atlético Madrid II	8	+2	9
15	Sant Andreu	9	−2	9
16	Rayo Majadahonda	9	−3	7
17	Águilas	9	−6	7
18	Europa Fc	9	−9	7
19	Juventud Torremolinos	9	−9	6
20	Teruel	9	−11	6