Alcorcon v Huesca

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Alcorcon win at 51%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Alcorcon 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
3. 1′KICK-OFF Alcorcon v Huesca
4. 6′SUBSTITUTION · 5' Huesca · On: M. Djetei · Off: G. Molina
5. 9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' M. Djetei · Huesca
6. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' F. Justo · Alcorcon
7. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' M. Cuesta · Alcorcon
8. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' A. Rude · Huesca
9. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' A. Gorostidi · Huesca
10. 33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Huesca · On: Pascu · Off: O. Sielva
11. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Alcorcon win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
12. 45′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–20
13. 45′SECOND HALF Alcorcon 0–0 Huesca
14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Huesca · On: D. Collado · Off: C. Herrera
15. 47′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Huesca
16. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' M. Djetei · Huesca
17. 48′Huesca are down to ten from 47′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 38–42–20
18. 49′HALF-TIME Alcorcon 0–0 Huesca
19. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Alcorcon win 37%)
20. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' A. Mayorga · Alcorcon
21. 55′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
22. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–47–19
23. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Alcorcon win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
24. 61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Alcorcon
25. 62′Alcorcon have ten men and Huesca ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 30–53–17
26. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' A. Mayorga · Alcorcon
27. 64′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
28. 65′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–23–72
29. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Alcorcon 0–1 Huesca
30. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Alcorcon win: 51% at kick-off, 6% now
31. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Huesca win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 23%)
32. 66′Huesca ahead on 65′ through D. Aurelio. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–22–72
33. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Alcorcon · On: P. Domingo Ciuraneta · Off: M. Berlanga
34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Alcorcon · On: G. Melero · Off: P. Rivera
35. 69′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
36. 71′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–63–13
37. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Alcorcon 1–1 Huesca
38. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Alcorcon win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
39. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Huesca win 13%)
40. 72′E. Aparicio scores for Alcorcon on 72′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–64–13
41. 73′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–19–78
42. 73′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 22–66–12
43. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Alcorcon 1–2 Huesca
44. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Alcorcon win: 51% at kick-off, 3% now
45. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Huesca win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 19%)
46. 73′GOAL DISALLOWED · 73' Huesca
47. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Alcorcon win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
48. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Huesca win 12%)
49. 76′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
50. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Huesca · On: M. Garcia · Off: Jimmy Suarez
51. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Huesca · On: S. Enrich · Off: D. Aurelio
52. 80′We said Alcorcon at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–8
53. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' L. Vacas · Alcorcon
54. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Alcorcon win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
55. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alcorcon · On: N. Di Domenico · Off: Davo
56. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alcorcon · On: R. Ibanez · Off: O. Ouhdadi
57. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Alcorcon · On: F. Sabina · Off: E. Aparicio
58. 96′1–1 at the end. Our 51% on Alcorcon misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
59. FTFULL TIME Alcorcon 1–1 Huesca
60. FTAlcorcon 1–1 Huesca · Alcorcon win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.