Águilas v Ibiza prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34

Águilas 1–2 Ibiza IBIZA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ibiza win~~36%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.622

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ibiza win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ibiza was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Águilas v Ibiza
24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Águilas · On: A. Heredia · Off: Serpeta
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Ibiza win 32%)
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' J. Mas · Águilas
45′HALF-TIME Águilas 0–0 Ibiza
45′SECOND HALF Águilas 0–0 Ibiza
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Ibiza win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
58′We said Ibiza at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' A. Hernandez · Águilas
68′We said Ibiza at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–61–19
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Águilas · On: D. Merchan · Off: G. Serrano Iranzo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Águilas · On: E. de Teresa · Off: Y. El Arbaoui
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Ibiza win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
74′We published Ibiza at 36%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Águilas 0–1 Ibiza
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Ibiza win: 36% at kick-off, 85% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Ibiza win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
75′74′: M. Justo on the scoresheet for Ibiza, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–13–85
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Ibiza win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
81′We published Ibiza at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ibiza · On: J. Eslava · Off: M. Justo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ibiza · On: J. Lazo · Off: A. Yoldi Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ibiza · On: J. Lazo · Off: P. Ortiz
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Águilas · On: U. Lobede · Off: J. Castedo
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Águilas · On: A. Collado · Off: H. Martinez
87′We published Ibiza at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
88′We published Ibiza at 36%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ibiza · On: I. Fadel · Off: T. Valls
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Águilas 0–2 Ibiza
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Ibiza win: 36% at kick-off, over 99% now
89′Ibiza ahead on 89′ through J. Eslava. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Ibiza · On: G. Rodriguez · Off: D. Astals
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Ibiza · On: G. Nsukula · Off: A. Yoldi
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' J. Terranova · Águilas
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' D. Merchan · Águilas
96′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Águilas 1–2 Ibiza
98′A. Sanchez scores for Águilas on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' G. Almenara · Ibiza
99′Full time, 1–2. We called Ibiza at 36% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Águilas 1–2 Ibiza
FTÁguilas 1–2 Ibiza · Ibiza win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ibiza just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Águilas 35%, draw 29%, Ibiza 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Águilas v IbizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Águilas win35%

Draw29%

Ibiza win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:45

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio El Rubial

Line-ups

Águilas

Ibiza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Águilas

Ibiza

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 9 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ibiza	7	0	10
17	Águilas	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Águilas

Formation not confirmed

13 J. Salcedo

2 J. Terranova

4 A. Sanchez

3 J. Mas

23 H. Martinez

11 J. Raigal

8 M. Abenza

6 Y. El Arbaoui

10 J. Castedo

19 G. Serrano Iranzo

7 Serpeta

Coach · Adrian Hernandez

Substitutes

1 · I. Martinez Marti

17 · D. Merchan

22 · A. Revuelta

15 · Fromsa

18 · J. Martinez

16 · A. Collado

31 · E. de Teresa

21 · A. Heredia

14 · A. Nyada

20 · U. Lobede

12 · M. Seyran

Ibiza

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Prieto

23 G. Almenara

4 J. Blasco

24 E. Ruiz

3 V. Garcia

18 D. Astals

6 J. Calavera

20 P. Ortiz

17 T. Valls

9 M. Justo

10 A. Yoldi

Coach · Raul Llona

Substitutes

13 · D. Stamatakis

31 · R. Vlad

15 · E. Curbelo

22 · H. Modesto

5 · I. Fadel

27 · P. Pugliese

16 · G. Rodriguez

21 · J. Lazo

11 · G. Nsukula

7 · J. Eslava

Our number · ibiza winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market38%

Us36%

~~Market~~38%

We make Ibiza a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Águilas v Ibiza~~1.16 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~17 v 10

~~The market · Ibiza win~~38% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ibiza win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Águilas win	35%	32%	+3
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Ibiza win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	68%	0
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Águilas or draw	64%	62%	+2
Águilas clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ibiza clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.5 10.8 6.7 2.6 1 10.7 13.6 7.6 3.0 2 6.5 7.5 4.4 3 2.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Águilas down, Ibiza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,972 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Águilas at home: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Ibiza away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Águilas, 1.17 for Ibiza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

ÁGUILAS

LWDLLD0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2

IBIZA

WWLLWD2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	7	+6	16
2	FC Cartagena	8	+8	15
3	Real Murcia	7	+4	15
4	Villarreal II	7	+6	14
5	Alcorcon	8	+8	13
6	Hércules	7	+1	13
7	Real Jaén	7	+3	12
8	Huesca	8	0	11
9	Antequera	7	+2	10
10	Ibiza	7	0	10
11	Atlético Madrid II	7	+3	9
12	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
13	Sant Andreu	7	−1	8
14	Gimnastic	7	−2	8
15	Algeciras	7	−4	7
16	Europa Fc	8	−8	7
17	Águilas	7	−5	6
18	Teruel	7	−9	5
19	Rayo Majadahonda	7	−3	4
20	Juventud Torremolinos	7	−10	2