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Águilas v Huesca

Águilas

2–2Full time

Huesca

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio El Rubial

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Águilas 2–2 Huesca ÁGUILAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Águilas win~~42%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.764

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Águilas win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Águilas was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Águilas v Huesca
11′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Huesca · On: C. Herrera · Off: A. Juarez
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Águilas 0–1 Huesca
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Águilas 0–1 Huesca · Y. Kembo
45′SECOND HALF Águilas 1–1 Huesca
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Huesca · On: M. Djetei · Off: D. Gomez
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Águilas 1–1 Huesca · Y. Kembo
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Águilas 1–1 Huesca · G. Serrano Iranzo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Huesca · On: M. Garcia · Off: Jimmy Suarez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Huesca · On: D. Aurelio · Off: L. Redondo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Águilas · On: J. Castedo · Off: G. Serrano Iranzo
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Águilas 1–2 Huesca · G. Serrano Iranzo
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Águilas 1–2 Huesca · C. Herrera
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Huesca · On: D. Collado · Off: I. Rodriguez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Águilas · On: D. Merchan · Off: Y. El Arbaoui
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Águilas · On: J. Martinez · Off: A. Revuelta
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Águilas · On: A. Heredia · Off: H. Martinez
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Águilas · On: M. Seyran · Off: Serpeta
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' D. Aurelio · Huesca
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Pascu · Huesca
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Águilas 2–2 Huesca · C. Herrera
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Águilas 2–2 Huesca · M. Abenza
FTFULL TIME Águilas 2–2 Huesca
FTÁguilas 2–2 Huesca · Águilas win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Águilas win42%

Draw29%

Huesca win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · Estadio El Rubial

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Águilas

Formation not confirmed

13 J. Salcedo

2 J. Terranova

4 A. Sanchez

22 A. Revuelta

23 H. Martinez

3 J. Mas

6 Y. El Arbaoui

7 Serpeta

8 M. Abenza

11 J. Raigal

19 G. Serrano Iranzo

Coach · Adrian Hernandez

Substitutes

1 · I. Martinez Marti

17 · D. Merchan

15 · Fromsa

18 · J. Martinez

5 · A. Perez

16 · A. Collado

31 · E. de Teresa

21 · A. Heredia

14 · A. Nyada

10 · J. Castedo

20 · U. Lobede

12 · M. Seyran

Huesca

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Gazzaniga

24 V. Garcia

15 G. Molina

4 Y. Kembo

3 I. Rodriguez

6 Jimmy Suarez

23 O. Sielva

21 D. Gomez

10 Pascu

11 L. Redondo

18 A. Juarez

Coach · Raul Jardiel

Substitutes

13 · A. Killane

2 · M. Djetei

20 · M. Aznar

22 · A. Gorostidi

14 · M. Garcia

8 · D. Aurelio

9 · S. Enrich

17 · D. Collado

19 · C. Herrera

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Águilas

Formation not confirmed

13 J. Salcedo

2 J. Terranova

4 A. Sanchez

22 A. Revuelta

23 H. Martinez

3 J. Mas

6 Y. El Arbaoui

7 Serpeta

8 M. Abenza

11 J. Raigal

19 G. Serrano Iranzo

Coach · Adrian Hernandez

Substitutes

1 · I. Martinez Marti

17 · D. Merchan

15 · Fromsa

18 · J. Martinez

5 · A. Perez

16 · A. Collado

31 · E. de Teresa

21 · A. Heredia

14 · A. Nyada

10 · J. Castedo

20 · U. Lobede

12 · M. Seyran

Huesca

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Gazzaniga

24 V. Garcia

15 G. Molina

4 Y. Kembo

3 I. Rodriguez

6 Jimmy Suarez

23 O. Sielva

21 D. Gomez

10 Pascu

11 L. Redondo

18 A. Juarez

Coach · Raul Jardiel

Substitutes

13 · A. Killane

2 · M. Djetei

20 · M. Aznar

22 · A. Gorostidi

14 · M. Garcia

8 · D. Aurelio

9 · S. Enrich

17 · D. Collado

19 · C. Herrera

Our number · águilas winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market33%

Us42%

~~Market~~33%

We make Águilas a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · águilas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Águilas win	42%	33%	+8
Draw	29%	31%	−2
Huesca win	29%	35%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
Both teams to score	47%	46%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	64%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	20%	+1
Águilas or draw	71%	65%	+6
Águilas clean sheet	36%	–	–
Huesca clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.5 9.6 5.3 1 11.9 13.4 6.7 2.4 2 8.1 8.3 4.3 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Águilas down, Huesca across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,961 Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Águilas at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Huesca away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Águilas, 1.04 for Huesca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 2

ÁGUILAS

DLWDLL2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

HUESCA

WDLDDW1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zaragoza	6	+6	15
2	Villarreal II	6	+6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	+9	12
4	Real Murcia	6	+3	12
5	FC Cartagena	6	+5	11
6	Real Jaén	6	+3	11
7	Ibiza	7	0	10
8	Hércules	6	0	10
9	Antequera	6	+2	9
10	Real Madrid II	7	+1	9
11	Huesca	6	0	9
12	Atlético Madrid II	6	+3	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	0	8
14	Gimnastic	6	−2	7
15	Algeciras	6	−3	7
16	Águilas	6	−5	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	−2	4
18	Europa Fc	6	−6	4
19	Teruel	6	−10	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	6	−10	1