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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 1 › Unionistas de Salamanca v Athletic Club II

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Unionistas de Salamanca v Athletic Club II

Unionistas de Salamanca
2–1Full time
Athletic Club II

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Reina Sofia

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17
Unionistas de Salamanca 2–1 Athletic Club II UNIONISTAS DE SALAMANCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Unionistas de Salamanca win46%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.436
The market’s Brier score0.663

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Unionistas de Salamanca win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Unionistas de Salamanca 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Unionistas de Salamanca v Athletic Club II
  4. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' M. Serrano · Unionistas de Salamanca
  5. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' A. Perez · Athletic Club II
  6. 43′A. Gomez scores for Unionistas de Salamanca on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  7. 43′We said Unionistas de Salamanca at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  8. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Unionistas de Salamanca 1–0 Athletic Club II · A. Gomez (penalty)
  9. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Unionistas de Salamanca win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
  10. 44′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Unionistas de Salamanca 1–0 Athletic Club II
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Unionistas de Salamanca 1–0 Athletic Club II
  13. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Unionistas de Salamanca win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
  14. 47′46′: E. Lete on the scoresheet for Athletic Club II, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
  15. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Unionistas de Salamanca 1–1 Athletic Club II
  16. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Unionistas de Salamanca win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
  17. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Unionistas de Salamanca win 77%)
  18. 49′We said Unionistas de Salamanca at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–22
  19. 55′PENALTY MISSED · 54' I. Oyono · Athletic Club II
  20. 60′We said Unionistas de Salamanca at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
  21. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: P. Ferrer · Off: W. Chatiliez
  22. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Unionistas de Salamanca win: 46% at kick-off, 25% now
  23. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Athletic Club II · On: B. Garcia · Off: S. Sanchez
  24. 69′We said Unionistas de Salamanca at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–61–16
  25. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Luis Alcalde · Unionistas de Salamanca
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: A. Marcelo · Off: G. Pastor
  27. 73′Unionistas de Salamanca ahead on 72′ through P. Ferrer. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–12–1
  28. 73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Unionistas de Salamanca 2–1 Athletic Club II · P. Ferrer
  29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Unionistas de Salamanca win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
  30. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Unionistas de Salamanca win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 65%)
  31. 74′We said Unionistas de Salamanca at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  32. 74′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  33. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Athletic Club II · On: A. Conde · Off: P. Huestamendia
  34. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Athletic Club II · On: A. Hierro · Off: I. Oyono
  35. 79′We said Unionistas de Salamanca at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  36. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' A. Marcelo · Unionistas de Salamanca
  37. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: R. Mayor · Off: C. Mutilva
  38. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: C. de la Nava · Off: Luis Alcalde
  39. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: A. Saidi · Off: D. Morer
  40. 86′We said Unionistas de Salamanca at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  41. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Unionistas de Salamanca win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Athletic Club II · On: A. Pecina · Off: E. Lete
  43. 97′Unionistas de Salamanca are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  44. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' M. Serrano · Unionistas de Salamanca
  45. 97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' M. Serrano · Unionistas de Salamanca
  46. FTFULL TIME Unionistas de Salamanca 2–1 Athletic Club II
  47. FTUnionistas de Salamanca 2–1 Athletic Club II · Unionistas de Salamanca win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unionistas de Salamanca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unionistas de Salamanca 46%, draw 27%, Athletic Club II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Unionistas de Salamanca v Athletic Club IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Unionistas de Salamanca win46%
Draw27%
Athletic Club II win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:45

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

VenueReina Sofia

RefereeP. Monterrubio Torres

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unionistas de Salamanca

Athletic Club II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Athletic Club II8+312
18Unionistas de Salamanca8−47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unionistas de salamanca winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
46% The market34%
Us46%
Market34%

We make Unionistas de Salamanca a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Unionistas de Salamanca v Athletic Club II1.44 – 1.03
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 7 v 1218 v 7
The market · Unionistas de Salamanca win34% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 17:06
Our probability · Unionistas de Salamanca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Unionistas de Salamanca win46%34%+12
Draw27%28%−1
Athletic Club II win27%38%−11
Over 2.5 goals45%49%−4
Both teams to score49%55%−6
Over 1.5 goals71%72%−1
Over 3.5 goals24%29%−5
Unionistas de Salamanca or draw73%62%+11
Unionistas de Salamanca clean sheet36%––
Athletic Club II clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 9.0 8.3 4.5 1 11.8 12.8 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.9 4.6 3 4.2 4.3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Unionistas de Salamanca down, Athletic Club II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.51 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsUNI 1–1 ATH · ATH 0–0 UNI · ATH 0–1 UNI · UNI 3–2 ATH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

UNIONISTAS DE SALAMANCA

LWLWDL1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

ATHLETIC CLUB II

WDWLDL3–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lugo9+822
2UD Logroñés8+617
3Racing Ferrol8+416
4Extremadura 19249+613
5Real Unión9+513
6Mérida AD8+312
7Athletic Club II8+312
8Zamora8+212
9Cultural Leonesa8+212
10Cacereño8+212
11Ponferradina8012
12Real Avilés8+411
13Pontevedra8011
14Mirandes8011
15Barakaldo8−29
16CD Coria8−48
17Deportivo La Coruña II9−88
18Unionistas de Salamanca8−47
19UD Ourense8−105
20Arenas Getxo8−172

The competition's standings before kick-off.