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UD Ourense v Barakaldo

UD Ourense

1–0Full time

Barakaldo

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio de O Couto

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

UD Ourense 1–0 Barakaldo BARAKALDO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barakaldo win~~36%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.641

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barakaldo win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barakaldo 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF UD Ourense v Barakaldo
2′🟨 YELLOW · 3' A. Zoilo · Barakaldo
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' B. Gomez · Barakaldo
45′SECOND HALF UD Ourense 0–0 Barakaldo
46′HALF-TIME UD Ourense 0–0 Barakaldo
46′🟨 YELLOW · 3' A. Zoilo · Barakaldo
46′🟨 YELLOW · 32' B. Gomez · Barakaldo
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' UD Ourense 1–0 Barakaldo
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' UD Ourense 1–0 Barakaldo · S. Baldrich
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Barakaldo · On: J. Cabo · Off: E. Mateos
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Barakaldo · On: A. Pena · Off: J. Huidobro
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Barakaldo · On: J. Cabo · Off: E. Mateos
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Barakaldo · On: A. Pena · Off: J. Huidobro
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' UD Ourense · On: C. Carro · Off: X. Dominguez
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' S. Baldrich · UD Ourense
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' S. Baldrich · UD Ourense
67′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Barakaldo · On: Okolo · Off: X. Sola
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Barakaldo · On: C. Mattheus · Off: X. Fernandez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' UD Ourense · On: N. Gonzalez · Off: D. Ferreiro
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' A. Bastida · UD Ourense
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barakaldo · On: A. Muguruza · Off: B. Gomez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' UD Ourense · On: R. Curras · Off: Champi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' UD Ourense · On: R. Jansonas · Off: S. Baldrich
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' J. Cabrera · UD Ourense
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' S. Pardo · UD Ourense
FTFULL TIME UD Ourense 1–0 Barakaldo
FTUD Ourense 1–0 Barakaldo · Barakaldo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

UD Ourense win35%

Draw29%

Barakaldo win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:45

Venue · Estadio de O Couto

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

UD Ourense

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Vizoso

19 S. Pardo

4 J. Labrada

5 L. Puime

3 J. Cabrera

17 X. Dominguez

14 Champi

22 D. Tejon

16 A. Bastida

10 D. Ferreiro

11 S. Baldrich

Coach · Juan Carballo

Substitutes

13 · B. Rielo

21 · I. Irazu

2 · Varo

6 · N. Gonzalez

8 · Rivelott Curro

23 · R. Curras

7 · M. Gandarillas

24 · R. Jansonas

18 · C. Carro

26 · M. Varela

Barakaldo

Formation not confirmed

13 G. Campos

22 S. Calera

4 O. Marotias

18 B. Gomez

3 A. Zoilo

15 I. Jimenez

8 J. Huidobro

14 U. Collado

21 X. Fernandez

27 E. Mateos

9 X. Sola

Coach · Imanol de la Sota Aberasturi

Substitutes

1 · I. Ispizua

5 · A. Muguruza

28 · A. Uruena

26 · M. Ruiz

10 · A. Pena

7 · J. Cabo

20 · Okolo

11 · C. Mattheus

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

UD Ourense

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Vizoso

19 S. Pardo

4 J. Labrada

5 L. Puime

3 J. Cabrera

17 X. Dominguez

14 Champi

22 D. Tejon

16 A. Bastida

10 D. Ferreiro

11 S. Baldrich

Coach · Juan Carballo

Substitutes

13 · B. Rielo

21 · I. Irazu

2 · Varo

6 · N. Gonzalez

8 · Rivelott Curro

23 · R. Curras

7 · M. Gandarillas

24 · R. Jansonas

18 · C. Carro

26 · M. Varela

Barakaldo

Formation not confirmed

13 G. Campos

22 S. Calera

4 O. Marotias

18 B. Gomez

3 A. Zoilo

15 I. Jimenez

8 J. Huidobro

14 U. Collado

21 X. Fernandez

27 E. Mateos

9 X. Sola

Coach · Imanol de la Sota Aberasturi

Substitutes

1 · I. Ispizua

5 · A. Muguruza

28 · A. Uruena

26 · M. Ruiz

10 · A. Pena

7 · J. Cabo

20 · Okolo

11 · C. Mattheus

Our number · barakaldo winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

36% The market46%

Us36%

~~Market~~46%

We make Barakaldo a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · barakaldo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UD Ourense win	35%	26%	+9
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Barakaldo win	36%	46%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−5
UD Ourense or draw	64%	54%	+10
UD Ourense clean sheet	32%	–	–
Barakaldo clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.8 11.4 6.8 2.6 1 11.1 13.5 7.5 2.9 2 6.5 7.4 4.2 3 2.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UD Ourense down, Barakaldo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,941 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

UD Ourense at home: 0.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Barakaldo away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for UD Ourense, 1.15 for Barakaldo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

UD OURENSE

LLLLDD0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

BARAKALDO

DLWLDD0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
4	Cacereño	6	+3	11
5	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
6	Mirandes	6	+2	10
7	Zamora	6	+2	10
8	Racing Ferrol	6	+2	10
9	Real Unión	6	+2	8
10	Deportivo La Coruña II	6	+1	8
11	Pontevedra	6	0	8
12	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
13	Extremadura 1924	6	−1	6
14	Mérida AD	6	−2	6
15	Unionistas de Salamanca	6	−3	6
16	Barakaldo	6	−3	6
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5
18	CD Coria	6	−3	5
19	UD Ourense	6	−8	2
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2