UD Logroñés v Cultural Leonesa prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:01

UD Logroñés 1–1 Cultural Leonesa UD LOGROÑÉS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said UD Logroñés win~~46%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UD Logroñés win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: UD Logroñés was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF UD Logroñés v Cultural Leonesa
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' S. Maestre · Cultural Leonesa
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Jaso Zunzarren · Cultural Leonesa
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' A. Alvarez · UD Logroñés
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' UD Logroñés win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′SECOND HALF UD Logroñés 0–0 Cultural Leonesa
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was UD Logroñés win 36%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' J. Delgado · Cultural Leonesa
46′HALF-TIME UD Logroñés 0–0 Cultural Leonesa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' UD Logroñés · On: I. Asenjo · Off: M. A. Ramirez Carrasco
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' UD Logroñés · On: J. Val · Off: A. Alvarez
50′We said UD Logroñés at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
52′We said UD Logroñés at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' UD Logroñés 0–1 Cultural Leonesa
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' UD Logroñés win: 46% at kick-off, 9% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Cultural Leonesa win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 24%)
54′53′: J. Delgado on the scoresheet for Cultural Leonesa, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' UD Logroñés win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' S. Camacho · UD Logroñés
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' UD Logroñés · On: B. Rosas · Off: M. Mari Sanchez
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' UD Logroñés · On: P. Brito · Off: I. Santana
68′We said UD Logroñés at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Escobar · Off: J. Delgado
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Algobia · Off: S. Maestre
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' UD Logroñés · On: D. Amigo · Off: M. Baselga
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Cardero · Off: D. Queipo
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' R. Pier · Cultural Leonesa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cultural Leonesa · On: H. Aller · Off: H. Garcia
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cultural Leonesa · On: A. Ndiaye · Off: Bicho
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' H. Aller · Cultural Leonesa
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' UD Logroñés 1–1 Cultural Leonesa
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Cultural Leonesa win 1%)
96′UD Logroñés level it on 90′ through B. Rosas. 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
96′Full time, 1–1. We called UD Logroñés at 46% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME UD Logroñés 1–1 Cultural Leonesa
FTUD Logroñés 1–1 Cultural Leonesa · UD Logroñés win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UD Logroñés are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UD Logroñés 46%, draw 26%, Cultural Leonesa 27%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on UD Logroñés v Cultural LeonesaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

UD Logroñés win46%

Draw26%

Cultural Leonesa win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Las Gaunas

RefereeM. Pozueta Rodriguez

Line-ups

UD Logroñés

Cultural Leonesa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UD Logroñés

Cultural Leonesa

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	UD Logroñés	7	+6	16
9	Cultural Leonesa	7	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

UD Logroñés

Formation not confirmed

13 F. Sobron

14 D. Navarro

5 A. Alvarez

4 E. Cabetas

3 S. Camacho

21 I. Santana

17 L. Issman

8 M. Mari Sanchez

20 A. Morales

23 M. A. Ramirez Carrasco

11 M. Baselga

Coach · Unai Mendia

Substitutes

1 · T. Konate

22 · C. Garcia

2 · J. Val

10 · Q. Rivero

16 · M. Zabala

9 · B. Rosas

19 · I. Asenjo

7 · D. Amigo

18 · P. Ba

27 · P. Brito

Cultural Leonesa

Formation not confirmed

13 M. San Roman

2 G. Ortega

5 R. Pier

3 J. Vazquez

15 A. Jaso Zunzarren

11 H. Garcia

14 Bicho

6 S. Maestre

16 O. Lopez

9 J. Delgado

22 D. Queipo

Coach · Castro Jandro

Substitutes

1 · P. M. Parera

24 · B. Tiru

17 · C. Pomares

20 · I. Lopez

8 · A. Ndiaye

23 · A. Algobia

10 · A. Cardero

30 · A. Oviedo

19 · A. Escobar

31 · M. Fernandez

33 · H. Aller

Our number · ud logroñés winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:46 · locked at kick-off

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make UD Logroñés a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UD Logroñés v Cultural Leonesa~~1.50 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~2 v 9

~~The market · UD Logroñés win~~45% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UD Logroñés win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UD Logroñés win	46%	45%	+1
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Cultural Leonesa win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	45%	+3
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	69%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	25%	+1
UD Logroñés or draw	73%	74%	−1
UD Logroñés clean sheet	34%	–	–
Cultural Leonesa clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.2 7.9 4.5 1 10.9 12.4 6.5 2.4 2 8.4 8.9 4.9 3 4.2 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UD Logroñés down, Cultural Leonesa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,956 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UD Logroñés at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cultural Leonesa away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for UD Logroñés, 1.09 for Cultural Leonesa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CUL 1–2 UDL · UDL 0–0 CUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 6 Sept

UD LOGROÑÉS

WWDWWL2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 5–3 · 2–1 · 1–3

CULTURAL LEONESA

WLWDLW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	8	+11	22
2	UD Logroñés	7	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
4	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
5	Athletic Club II	8	+3	12
6	Cacereño	7	+3	12
7	Zamora	8	+2	12
8	Ponferradina	8	0	12
9	Cultural Leonesa	7	+2	11
10	Mirandes	8	0	11
11	Real Unión	8	+2	10
12	Extremadura 1924	8	+1	10
13	Barakaldo	8	−2	9
14	Real Avilés	7	+1	8
15	Pontevedra	7	−1	8
16	Deportivo La Coruña II	8	−3	8
17	CD Coria	8	−4	8
18	Unionistas de Salamanca	8	−4	7
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	8	−17	2