Real Unión v Real Avilés prediction · Primera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real UniónDrawReal Avilés

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Unión 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Unión are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Unión 50%, draw 22%, Real Avilés 28%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Real Unión v Real AvilésBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Real Unión win50%

Draw22%

Real Avilés win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:45

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 10

VenueStadium Gal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Unión

Real Avilés

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Real Unión	9	+5	13
14	Real Avilés	9	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real unión winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Real Unión a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Unión v Real Avilés~~2.02 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~8 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Unión win	50%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Real Avilés win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Real Unión or draw	72%	–	–
Real Unión clean sheet	24%	–	–
Real Avilés clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 4.3 3.3 1 6.1 9.4 6.5 3.2 2 6.4 9.0 6.5 3.2 3 4.3 6.1 4.4 2.1 4 2.2 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Unión down, Real Avilés across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.1% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Real Unión at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Avilés away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Real Unión, 1.45 for Real Avilés. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept

REAL UNIÓN

DLDDDW2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–1

REAL AVILÉS

DDLWWL1–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	9	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	9	+8	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	+2	16
4	Cacereño	9	+3	15
5	Mirandes	9	+2	14
6	Pontevedra	9	+1	14
7	Extremadura 1924	9	+6	13
8	Real Unión	9	+5	13
9	Ponferradina	9	0	13
10	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
11	Athletic Club II	9	+2	12
12	Zamora	9	+1	12
13	Cultural Leonesa	9	+1	12
14	Real Avilés	9	+2	11
15	Barakaldo	9	−2	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	9	−3	10
17	CD Coria	8	−4	8
18	Deportivo La Coruña II	9	−8	8
19	UD Ourense	9	−12	5
20	Arenas Getxo	9	−15	5