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Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 1 › Real Unión v Lugo

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Real Unión v Lugo

Real Unión
4–1Full time
Lugo

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · FRI 23 OCT · Stadium Gal

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
Real Unión 4–1 Lugo REAL UNIÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Real Unión win41%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.514
The market’s Brier score0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Unión win at 41%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Real Unión v Lugo
  3. 1′Much as we predicted: Real Unión was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
  4. 9′We said Real Unión at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–22–60
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Real Unión 0–1 Lugo
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
  7. 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Lugo win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Real Unión win 40%)
  8. 11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' Lugo
  9. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
  10. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Real Unión win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Lugo win 60%)
  11. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Real Unión 1–0 Lugo
  12. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
  13. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' L. Sangalli · Real Unión
  14. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  15. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  16. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' E. Azkune · Real Unión
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Real Unión 1–0 Lugo
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lugo · On: A. Godoy · Off: G. Berzal
  19. 49′We published Real Unión at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  20. 49′HALF-TIME Real Unión 1–0 Lugo
  21. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' R. Lucero · Lugo
  22. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lugo · On: K. Presa · Off: P. Parrilla
  23. 62′We said Real Unión at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–53–21
  24. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Real Unión 1–1 Lugo
  25. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 26% now
  26. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Real Unión win 79%)
  27. 63′A. Godoy scores for Lugo on 63′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–54–21
  28. 65′We said Real Unión at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
  29. 69′We published Real Unión at 41%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
  30. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Real Unión 2–1 Lugo
  31. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
  32. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Real Unión win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 60%)
  33. 70′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  34. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 83% now
  35. 71′70′: J. Pola on the scoresheet for Real Unión, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  36. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Unión · On: B. Gaubeka · Off: M. Mancisidor
  37. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Unión · On: A. Mateo · Off: U. Albizua
  38. 74′We published Real Unión at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
  39. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lugo · On: A. Gallar · Off: A. Palma
  40. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lugo · On: S. Perez · Off: P. Haro
  41. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' K. Presa · Lugo
  42. 80′We published Real Unión at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  43. 81′We published Real Unión at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lugo · On: H. Pascual · Off: P. Moreno
  45. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Real Unión 3–1 Lugo
  46. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Real Unión win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
  47. 82′We published Real Unión at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  48. 82′Real Unión ahead on 82′ through U. Garcia. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  49. 83′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  50. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Unión · On: J. de la Mata · Off: A. Martin
  51. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Unión · On: P. Ruiz · Off: A. Galarza
  52. 91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  53. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Real Unión 4–1 Lugo
  54. 92′L. Sangalli scores for Real Unión on 90′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  55. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Real Unión · On: M. Hussaini Muhammad · Off: E. Azkune
  56. 96′Full time, 4–1. We called Real Unión at 41% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  57. FTFULL TIME Real Unión 4–1 Lugo
  58. FTReal Unión 4–1 Lugo · Real Unión win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Unión are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Unión 41%, draw 27%, Lugo 31%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Real Unión v LugoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Real Unión win41%
Draw27%
Lugo win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

VenueStadium Gal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Unión

Lugo

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lugo8+1122
13Real Unión8+210

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real unión winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off
41% The market36%
Us41%
Market36%

We make Real Unión a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Real Unión v Lugo1.38 – 1.16
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 SeptW0 D4 L2 · W6 D0 L0
Table places · points 10 v 2213 v 1
The market · Real Unión win36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:47
Our probability · Real Unión win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Real Unión win41%36%+5
Draw27%29%−2
Lugo win31%36%−5
Over 2.5 goals46%48%−2
Both teams to score51%54%−3
Over 1.5 goals72%72%0
Over 3.5 goals25%28%−3
Real Unión or draw69%64%+5
Real Unión clean sheet32%––
Lugo clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 8.5 8.8 5.3 2.1 1 10.5 12.9 7.2 2.8 2 7.5 8.5 4.9 3 3.5 4.0 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Real Unión down, Lugo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsREA 3–0 LUG · LUG 3–1 REA · REA 0–0 LUG · LUG 2–0 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 13 Sept

REAL UNIÓN

LDLDDD2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

LUGO

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lugo8+1122
2UD Logroñés8+617
3Racing Ferrol8+416
4Mérida AD8+312
5Athletic Club II8+312
6Zamora8+212
7Cultural Leonesa8+212
8Cacereño8+212
9Ponferradina8012
10Real Avilés8+411
11Pontevedra8011
12Mirandes8011
13Real Unión8+210
14Extremadura 19248+110
15Barakaldo8−29
16Deportivo La Coruña II8−38
17CD Coria8−48
18Unionistas de Salamanca8−47
19UD Ourense8−105
20Arenas Getxo8−172

The competition's standings before kick-off.