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Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 1 › Real Avilés v UD Logroñés

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Real Avilés v UD Logroñés

Real Avilés
1–3Full time
UD Logroñés

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17
Real Avilés 1–3 UD Logroñés REAL AVILÉS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Real Avilés win40%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.623
The market’s Brier score0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Avilés win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Real Avilés 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Real Avilés v UD Logroñés
  4. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' M. A. Ramirez Carrasco · UD Logroñés
  5. 28′We said Real Avilés at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Real Avilés 1–0 UD Logroñés
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Real Avilés win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
  8. 30′29′: A. Santamaria on the scoresheet for Real Avilés, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–13
  9. 31′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 66–20–13
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Real Avilés 1–0 UD Logroñés
  11. 46′HALF-TIME Real Avilés 1–0 UD Logroñés
  12. 48′We said Real Avilés at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  13. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Real Avilés win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
  14. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Q. Rivero · UD Logroñés
  15. 59′UD Logroñés level it on 59′ through A. Morales. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–44–27
  16. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Real Avilés 1–1 UD Logroñés
  17. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Real Avilés win: 40% at kick-off, 29% now
  18. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Real Avilés win 73%)
  19. 61′We said Real Avilés at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–46–26
  20. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' UD Logroñés · On: I. Asenjo · Off: M. A. Ramirez Carrasco
  21. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' UD Logroñés · On: I. Santana · Off: P. Brito
  22. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' I. Alday · Real Avilés
  23. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' A. Morales · UD Logroñés
  24. 68′We said Real Avilés at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
  25. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Real Avilés · On: I. Munoz · Off: P. Doncel
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' UD Logroñés · On: M. Baselga · Off: B. Rosas
  27. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Avilés · On: J. Mahicas · Off: A. Santamaria
  28. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Avilés · On: S. Franco · Off: B. Cayarga
  29. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Real Avilés win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  30. 75′We said Real Avilés at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
  31. 78′We said Real Avilés at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–15–84
  32. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Real Avilés 1–2 UD Logroñés
  33. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Real Avilés win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
  34. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' UD Logroñés win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 66%)
  35. 79′A. Morales scores for UD Logroñés on 79′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  36. 84′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  37. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Real Avilés · On: Neskes · Off: A. Carmona
  38. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Real Avilés · On: D. Liduena Alonso · Off: C. Montes
  39. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Real Avilés 1–3 UD Logroñés
  40. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Real Avilés win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  41. 85′85′: M. Baselga on the scoresheet for UD Logroñés, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  42. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' UD Logroñés · On: M. Zabala · Off: L. Issman
  43. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' UD Logroñés · On: D. Navarro · Off: A. Morales
  44. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' D. Navarro · UD Logroñés
  45. 94′1–3 at the end. Our 40% on Real Avilés misses, and the record keeps it. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  46. FTFULL TIME Real Avilés 1–3 UD Logroñés
  47. FTReal Avilés 1–3 UD Logroñés · Real Avilés win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Real Avilés just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Avilés 40%, draw 24%, UD Logroñés 36%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Real Avilés v UD LogroñésBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Real Avilés win40%
Draw24%
UD Logroñés win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:45

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Roman Suarez Puerta

RefereeF. Roman

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Avilés

UD Logroñés

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2UD Logroñés8+617
12Real Avilés8+411

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real avilés winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
40% The market32%
Us40%
Market32%

We make Real Avilés a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Real Avilés v UD Logroñés1.67 – 1.57
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 11 v 1712 v 2
The market · Real Avilés win32% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 17:06
Our probability · Real Avilés win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Real Avilés win40%32%+8
Draw24%28%−4
UD Logroñés win36%40%−4
Over 2.5 goals62%50%+12
Both teams to score64%56%+8
Over 1.5 goals83%74%+9
Over 3.5 goals41%30%+11
Real Avilés or draw64%60%+4
Real Avilés clean sheet21%––
UD Logroñés clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 4.5 6.0 4.9 2.6 1 6.3 10.5 7.9 4.2 2 5.5 8.3 6.5 3.4 3 3.0 4.7 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Real Avilés down, UD Logroñés across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

REAL AVILÉS

WDDLWW3–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

UD LOGROÑÉS

WDWWLD3–0 · 1–1 · 5–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lugo9+822
2UD Logroñés8+617
3Racing Ferrol8+416
4Extremadura 19249+613
5Real Unión9+513
6Mérida AD8+312
7Athletic Club II8+312
8Zamora8+212
9Cultural Leonesa8+212
10Cacereño8+212
11Ponferradina8012
12Real Avilés8+411
13Pontevedra8011
14Mirandes8011
15Barakaldo8−29
16CD Coria8−48
17Deportivo La Coruña II9−88
18Unionistas de Salamanca8−47
19UD Ourense8−105
20Arenas Getxo8−172

The competition's standings before kick-off.