Racing Ferrol v Unionistas de Salamanca prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Racing Ferrol 1–0 Unionistas de Salamanca RACING FERROL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Racing Ferrol win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.446

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Racing Ferrol win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Racing Ferrol was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Racing Ferrol v Unionistas de Salamanca
21′Racing Ferrol ahead on 20′ through R. Arroyo. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–8
21′We published Racing Ferrol at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Racing Ferrol 1–0 Unionistas de Salamanca · R. Arroyo
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Racing Ferrol win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' D. Ojeda · Racing Ferrol
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–7
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Racing Ferrol win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Racing Ferrol 1–0 Unionistas de Salamanca
46′SECOND HALF Racing Ferrol 1–0 Unionistas de Salamanca
54′We published Racing Ferrol at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: Luis Alcalde · Off: G. Pastor
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Racing Ferrol · On: R. Alcaina · Off: E. Eto'o
69′We published Racing Ferrol at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Racing Ferrol win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' D. Caballo · Unionistas de Salamanca
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: W. Chatiliez · Off: H. de Bustos
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: J. Lendinez · Off: C. de la Nava
78′We published Racing Ferrol at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Racing Ferrol · On: V. Esquerdo · Off: R. Arroyo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Racing Ferrol · On: R. Blanco · Off: D. Ojeda
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Unionistas de Salamanca · On: L. L. Prados · Off: A. Marcelo
85′We published Racing Ferrol at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Racing Ferrol win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Racing Ferrol · On: A. Garcia · Off: E. Pujol
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Racing Ferrol · On: D. Castro · Off: E. Bujan
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' E. Monjonell · Racing Ferrol
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' M. Serrano · Unionistas de Salamanca
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' R. Alcaina · Racing Ferrol
FTFULL TIME Racing Ferrol 1–0 Unionistas de Salamanca
FTRacing Ferrol 1–0 Unionistas de Salamanca · Racing Ferrol win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing Ferrol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Ferrol 46%, draw 28%, Unionistas de Salamanca 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Racing Ferrol v Unionistas de SalamancaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Racing Ferrol win46%

Draw28%

Unionistas de Salamanca win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Municipal da Malata

Line-ups

Racing Ferrol

Unionistas de Salamanca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Ferrol

Unionistas de Salamanca

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Racing Ferrol

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Diaz

3 E. Pujol

5 E. Monjonell

4 G. Novoa

22 S. Garcia

11 E. Bujan

14 J. Bernal

6 F. Gonzalez

10 D. Ojeda

19 R. Arroyo

18 E. Eto'o

Coach · Javi Vazquez

Substitutes

13 · C. G. Fernandez

15 · D. Castro

21 · A. Garcia

8 · V. Esquerdo

16 · R. Blanco

23 · S. Djanbou

20 · R. Alcaina

9 · U. Ropero

Unionistas de Salamanca

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Daza

2 D. Morer

3 M. Serrano

16 G. Rivera

23 D. Caballo

20 A. Casas

14 A. Marcelo

24 G. Pastor

11 A. Gomez

10 C. de la Nava

7 H. de Bustos

Coach · Javier Medina

Substitutes

13 · Emilio

4 · R. Mayor

21 · Retu

19 · C. Mutilva

17 · A. Saidi

5 · Luis Alcalde

8 · J. Lendinez

22 · W. Chatiliez

31 · L. L. Prados

Our number · racing ferrol winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Racing Ferrol a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing Ferrol v Unionistas de Salamanca~~1.37 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~3 v 16

~~The market · Racing Ferrol win~~53% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Racing Ferrol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Ferrol win	46%	53%	−7
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Unionistas de Salamanca win	26%	21%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Racing Ferrol or draw	74%	79%	−5
Racing Ferrol clean sheet	38%	–	–
Unionistas de Salamanca clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.3 9.0 4.6 1 12.8 13.1 6.1 2.0 2 9.0 8.6 4.2 3 4.1 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Ferrol down, Unionistas de Salamanca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,951 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing Ferrol at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Unionistas de Salamanca away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Racing Ferrol, 0.97 for Unionistas de Salamanca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~UNI 3–2 RAC · RAC 2–1 UNI · UNI 1–1 RAC · RAC 0–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

RACING FERROL

LWWLWW0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

UNIONISTAS DE SALAMANCA

LLWLWD2–4 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	7	+8	19
2	UD Logroñés	7	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Athletic Club II	7	+4	12
5	Cacereño	7	+3	12
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Cultural Leonesa	7	+2	11
9	Ponferradina	7	0	11
10	Real Unión	7	+2	9
11	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
12	Mérida AD	7	−1	9
13	Real Avilés	7	+1	8
14	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
15	Pontevedra	7	−1	8
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
17	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	7	−13	2