Racing Ferrol v Ponferradina prediction · Primera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Racing FerrolDrawPonferradina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Racing Ferrol 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Racing Ferrol just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Ferrol 37%, draw 33%, Ponferradina 30%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Racing Ferrol v PonferradinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Racing Ferrol win37%

Draw33%

Ponferradina win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Municipal da Malata

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Ferrol

Ponferradina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Racing Ferrol	9	+2	16
9	Ponferradina	9	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing ferrol winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Racing Ferrol a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing Ferrol v Ponferradina~~1.02 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~3 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Ferrol win	37%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Ponferradina win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Racing Ferrol or draw	70%	–	–
Racing Ferrol clean sheet	42%	–	–
Ponferradina clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%

0123450 15.6 12.7 5.8 1 14.8 13.7 5.8 2 7.8 6.7 3.0 3 2.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Ferrol down, Ponferradina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.1% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing Ferrol at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ponferradina away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Racing Ferrol, 0.88 for Ponferradina. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PON 3–0 RAC · RAC 2–1 PON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept

RACING FERROL

WLWWWL1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

PONFERRADINA

WDWLDD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	9	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	9	+8	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	+2	16
4	Cacereño	9	+3	15
5	Mirandes	9	+2	14
6	Pontevedra	9	+1	14
7	Extremadura 1924	9	+6	13
8	Real Unión	9	+5	13
9	Ponferradina	9	0	13
10	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
11	Athletic Club II	9	+2	12
12	Zamora	9	+1	12
13	Cultural Leonesa	9	+1	12
14	Real Avilés	9	+2	11
15	Barakaldo	9	−2	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	9	−3	10
17	CD Coria	8	−4	8
18	Deportivo La Coruña II	9	−8	8
19	UD Ourense	9	−12	5
20	Arenas Getxo	9	−15	5