Pontevedra v Mérida AD prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Pontevedra 1–2 Mérida AD PONTEVEDRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pontevedra win~~51%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.930

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.772

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pontevedra win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pontevedra was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–23
1′KICK-OFF Pontevedra v Mérida AD
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' I. Ivorra · Pontevedra
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Pontevedra 0–1 Mérida AD
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Pontevedra 0–1 Mérida AD · Gonzalez Nacho
28′🟨 YELLOW · 16' I. Ivorra · Pontevedra
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' H. Carrillo · Mérida AD
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pontevedra 0–1 Mérida AD
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Pontevedra 0–1 Mérida AD · S. El Ftouhi
45′SECOND HALF Pontevedra 0–1 Mérida AD
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pontevedra · On: D. Mba · Off: I. Charid
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pontevedra · On: J. Ramos · Off: I. Ivorra
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Barbu · Mérida AD
60′🟨 YELLOW · 16' I. Ivorra · Pontevedra
60′🟨 YELLOW · 34' H. Carrillo · Mérida AD
60′⚽ GOAL · 46' Pontevedra 0–1 Mérida AD · S. El Ftouhi (assist R. Beneit)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pontevedra · On: D. Mba · Off: I. Charid
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pontevedra · On: J. Ramos · Off: I. Ivorra
60′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Barbu · Mérida AD
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Pontevedra · On: P. Gaye · Off: L. Macias
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mérida AD · On: B. Dibrani · Off: J. Lopez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mérida AD · On: B. Dibrani · Off: J. Lopez
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' R. Beneit · Mérida AD
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mérida AD · On: B. Dibrani · Off: J. Lopez
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' R. Beneit · Mérida AD
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mérida AD · On: B. Dibrani · Off: J. Lopez
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' R. Beneit · Mérida AD
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pontevedra · On: A. Argos · Off: I. Elejalde
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mérida AD · On: Fito · Off: Barbu
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Mérida AD · On: D. Guagua · Off: S. El Ftouhi
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' J. Areso · Mérida AD
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Mérida AD · On: A. Jay · Off: R. Beneit
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Mérida AD · On: S. Hallsson · Off: Kone
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Pontevedra 0–2 Mérida AD · S. El Ftouhi
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Pontevedra 0–2 Mérida AD · S. Hallsson
83′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Pontevedra · On: B. Omoregbe · Off: A. Perez
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' P. Gaye · Pontevedra
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Pontevedra 1–2 Mérida AD · S. Hallsson
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Pontevedra 1–2 Mérida AD · P. Gaye
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' M. Solar · Mérida AD
FTFULL TIME Pontevedra 1–2 Mérida AD
FTPontevedra 1–2 Mérida AD · Pontevedra win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pontevedra win51%

Draw26%

Mérida AD win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

Line-ups

Pontevedra

Mérida AD

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pontevedra

Mérida AD

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Pontevedra	6	0	8
15	Mérida AD	6	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Pontevedra

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Marqueta

16 A. Vidorreta

15 D. Alba

5 A. Perez

20 Rui Pedro

6 I. Ivorra

10 Y. Pino

14 L. Macias

21 I. Charid

11 I. Elejalde

22 A. Comparada Gonzalez

Coach · Ruben Dominguez

Substitutes

13 · I. Galindo

2 · A. Argos

4 · Juanra

18 · R. Ergouai

8 · J. Ramos

9 · D. Mba

3 · P. Gaye

7 · A. Gonzalez

23 · M. Bravo

19 · B. Omoregbe

Mérida AD

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Csenterics

14 H. Carrillo

4 Gonzalez Nacho

20 Barbu

5 H. Sanz

7 J. Areso

21 R. Beneit

8 M. Solar

6 J. Lopez

24 Kone

11 S. El Ftouhi

Coach · Francisco Beltran

Substitutes

13 · I. Juhasz

26 · A. Gil

16 · Fito

2 · A. Jay

15 · A. Salguero

22 · A. Aranda

23 · G. Almeida

18 · B. Dibrani

17 · D. Guagua

10 · C. Doncel

9 · S. Hallsson

19 · D. Sandoval

Our number · pontevedra winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

51% The market42%

Us51%

~~Market~~42%

We make Pontevedra a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pontevedra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pontevedra win	51%	42%	+10
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Mérida AD win	23%	29%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	45%	+1
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	25%	−1
Pontevedra or draw	77%	71%	+6
Pontevedra clean sheet	39%	–	–
Mérida AD clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.7 7.4 3.7 1 12.4 12.2 5.6 2 9.9 9.2 4.3 3 5.2 4.8 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pontevedra down, Mérida AD across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,946 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pontevedra at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mérida AD away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Pontevedra, 0.95 for Mérida AD. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MER 1–1 PON · PON 1–1 MER · PON 1–5 MER · MER 2–0 PON

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

PONTEVEDRA

WWLDDL1–0 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

MÉRIDA AD

WLLLLW1–0 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Cacereño	7	+3	12
5	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
9	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
10	Real Unión	6	+2	8
11	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
12	Pontevedra	6	0	8
13	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
14	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
15	Mérida AD	6	−2	6
16	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2