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Pontevedra v Cacereño
Pontevedra
CacereñoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Pontevedra win at 47%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Pontevedra 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Pontevedra v Cacereño
- 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' T. Calvo · Cacereño
- 11′11′: Y. Pino on the scoresheet for Pontevedra, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–8
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño · Y. Pino (penalty)
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
- 12′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
- 13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' I. Martinez Munoz · Cacereño
- 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' A. Vidorreta · Pontevedra
- 45′HALF-TIME Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cacereño · On: L. Sanchez · Off: T. Calvo
- 46′SECOND HALF Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño
- 47′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cacereño · On: J. Artola · Off: I. Fernandez
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cacereño · On: S. Navarro · Off: Runy
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Pontevedra · On: A. Gil · Off: L. Macias
- 66′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pontevedra · On: I. Elejalde · Off: D. Mba
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pontevedra · On: A. Argos · Off: P. Gaye
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pontevedra · On: R. Ergouai · Off: D. Alba
- 77′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 65' L. Macias · Pontevedra
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' A. Exposito · Cacereño
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cacereño · On: I. Tellechea · Off: A. Monerris
- 84′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' J. Artola · Cacereño
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cacereño · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: S. Lopez
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' J. Artola · Cacereño
- 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' J. Artola · Cacereño
- 96′Cacereño are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 99–1–0
- 97′A second red card for Cacereño on 90′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 99–1–0
- 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' I. Martinez Munoz · Cacereño
- 97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' I. Martinez Munoz · Cacereño
- 98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+8' Pontevedra · On: M. Bravo · Off: A. Gil
- 100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' N. Conesa · Cacereño
- FTFULL TIME Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño
- FTPontevedra 1–0 Cacereño · Pontevedra win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Pontevedra are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Pontevedra 47%, draw 29%, Cacereño 24%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Pontevedra win47%
Cacereño win24%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00
RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8
RefereeF. Garcia
Match timeline
All events
PontevedraMIN
CacereñoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Pontevedra
Cacereño
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Pontevedra
Cacereño
Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Pontevedra
Formation not confirmed
1 R. Marqueta
16 A. Vidorreta
15 D. Alba
5 A. Perez
20 Rui Pedro
14 L. Macias
8 J. Ramos
10 Y. Pino
3 P. Gaye
9 D. Mba
22 A. Comparada Gonzalez
Coach · Ruben Dominguez
Substitutes
13 · I. Galindo
2 · A. Argos
4 · Juanra
18 · R. Ergouai
21 · I. Charid
6 · I. Ivorra
11 · I. Elejalde
7 · A. Gonzalez
17 · A. Gil
23 · M. Bravo
19 · B. Omoregbe
Cacereño
Formation not confirmed
1 D. Nieves
17 S. Lopez
2 I. Martinez Munoz
3 M. Molina
22 A. Exposito
11 A. Monerris
6 N. Conesa
5 T. Calvo
10 Runy
7 I. Fernandez
9 O. Chit
Coach · Julio Cobos
Substitutes
13 · G. Garcia
14 · J. Alonso
4 · P. Barea
15 · V. Rodriguez
8 · A. Gete
23 · J. Gonzalez
20 · I. Tellechea
16 · S. Navarro
18 · J. Artola
21 · L. Sanchez
24 · U. Cabrera
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Pontevedra
Formation not confirmed
1 R. Marqueta
16 A. Vidorreta
15 D. Alba
5 A. Perez
20 Rui Pedro
14 L. Macias
8 J. Ramos
10 Y. Pino
3 P. Gaye
9 D. Mba
22 A. Comparada Gonzalez
Coach · Ruben Dominguez
Substitutes
13 · I. Galindo
2 · A. Argos
4 · Juanra
18 · R. Ergouai
21 · I. Charid
6 · I. Ivorra
11 · I. Elejalde
7 · A. Gonzalez
17 · A. Gil
23 · M. Bravo
19 · B. Omoregbe
Cacereño
Formation not confirmed
1 D. Nieves
17 S. Lopez
2 I. Martinez Munoz
3 M. Molina
22 A. Exposito
11 A. Monerris
6 N. Conesa
5 T. Calvo
10 Runy
7 I. Fernandez
9 O. Chit
Coach · Julio Cobos
Substitutes
13 · G. Garcia
14 · J. Alonso
4 · P. Barea
15 · V. Rodriguez
8 · A. Gete
23 · J. Gonzalez
20 · I. Tellechea
16 · S. Navarro
18 · J. Artola
21 · L. Sanchez
24 · U. Cabrera
We make Pontevedra a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra win | 47% | 41% | +6 |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| Cacereño win | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Pontevedra or draw | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Pontevedra clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| Cacereño clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept
PONTEVEDRA
CACEREÑO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | +4 | 16 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Zamora | 8 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ponferradina | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Mirandes | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | −1 | 9 |
| 13 | Barakaldo | 8 | −2 | 9 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 8 | −3 | 8 |
| 17 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 8 | −4 | 7 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | −5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | −7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | −13 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Lugo
UD Logroñés
Racing Ferrol
Athletic Club II
Zamora
Ponferradina
Cultural Leonesa
Mirandes
Real Unión
Extremadura 1924
Mérida AD
Barakaldo
Real Avilés
Deportivo La Coruña II
Unionistas de Salamanca
CD Coria
UD Ourense
Arenas Getxo