Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 1 › Pontevedra v Cacereño

Back
Spain flag

Pontevedra v Cacereño

Pontevedra
1–0Full time
Cacereño

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño PONTEVEDRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Pontevedra win47%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.425
The market’s Brier score0.524

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pontevedra win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Pontevedra 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Pontevedra v Cacereño
  4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' T. Calvo · Cacereño
  5. 11′11′: Y. Pino on the scoresheet for Pontevedra, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–8
  6. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño · Y. Pino (penalty)
  7. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 12′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  9. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' I. Martinez Munoz · Cacereño
  10. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
  12. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' A. Vidorreta · Pontevedra
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cacereño · On: L. Sanchez · Off: T. Calvo
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño
  16. 47′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  17. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cacereño · On: J. Artola · Off: I. Fernandez
  18. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cacereño · On: S. Navarro · Off: Runy
  19. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Pontevedra · On: A. Gil · Off: L. Macias
  20. 66′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  21. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  22. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pontevedra · On: I. Elejalde · Off: D. Mba
  23. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pontevedra · On: A. Argos · Off: P. Gaye
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pontevedra · On: R. Ergouai · Off: D. Alba
  25. 77′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  26. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 65' L. Macias · Pontevedra
  27. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' A. Exposito · Cacereño
  28. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cacereño · On: I. Tellechea · Off: A. Monerris
  29. 84′We said Pontevedra at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  30. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' J. Artola · Cacereño
  31. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cacereño · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: S. Lopez
  32. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Pontevedra win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  33. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' J. Artola · Cacereño
  34. 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' J. Artola · Cacereño
  35. 96′Cacereño are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  36. 97′A second red card for Cacereño on 90′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  37. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' I. Martinez Munoz · Cacereño
  38. 97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' I. Martinez Munoz · Cacereño
  39. 98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+8' Pontevedra · On: M. Bravo · Off: A. Gil
  40. 100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' N. Conesa · Cacereño
  41. FTFULL TIME Pontevedra 1–0 Cacereño
  42. FTPontevedra 1–0 Cacereño · Pontevedra win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pontevedra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pontevedra 47%, draw 29%, Cacereño 24%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Pontevedra v CacereñoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pontevedra win47%
Draw29%
Cacereño win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

RefereeF. Garcia

Line-ups

Pontevedra

Cacereño

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pontevedra

Cacereño

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Cacereño7+312
15Pontevedra7−18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pontevedra

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Marqueta

16 A. Vidorreta

15 D. Alba

5 A. Perez

20 Rui Pedro

14 L. Macias

8 J. Ramos

10 Y. Pino

3 P. Gaye

9 D. Mba

22 A. Comparada Gonzalez

Coach · Ruben Dominguez

Substitutes

13 · I. Galindo

2 · A. Argos

4 · Juanra

18 · R. Ergouai

21 · I. Charid

6 · I. Ivorra

11 · I. Elejalde

7 · A. Gonzalez

17 · A. Gil

23 · M. Bravo

19 · B. Omoregbe

Cacereño

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Nieves

17 S. Lopez

2 I. Martinez Munoz

3 M. Molina

22 A. Exposito

11 A. Monerris

6 N. Conesa

5 T. Calvo

10 Runy

7 I. Fernandez

9 O. Chit

Coach · Julio Cobos

Substitutes

13 · G. Garcia

14 · J. Alonso

4 · P. Barea

15 · V. Rodriguez

8 · A. Gete

23 · J. Gonzalez

20 · I. Tellechea

16 · S. Navarro

18 · J. Artola

21 · L. Sanchez

24 · U. Cabrera

Our number · pontevedra winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market41%
Us47%
Market41%

We make Pontevedra a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Pontevedra v Cacereño1.34 – 0.88
Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 8 v 1215 v 5
The market · Pontevedra win41% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 14:30
Our probability · Pontevedra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Pontevedra win47%41%+6
Draw29%30%−1
Cacereño win24%29%−5
Over 2.5 goals38%40%−2
Both teams to score43%47%−4
Over 1.5 goals65%65%0
Over 3.5 goals19%22%−3
Pontevedra or draw76%71%+5
Pontevedra clean sheet42%––
Cacereño clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%
0123450 11.5 9.2 4.3 1 14.1 13.1 5.6 2 9.7 8.4 3.7 3 4.3 3.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Pontevedra down, Cacereño across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsCAC 1–0 PON · PON 1–1 CAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PONTEVEDRA

WLDDLL4–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

CACEREÑO

DWWDLD1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lugo8+1122
2UD Logroñés7+616
3Racing Ferrol8+416
4Athletic Club II7+412
5Cacereño7+312
6Zamora8+212
7Ponferradina8012
8Cultural Leonesa7+211
9Mirandes8011
10Real Unión8+210
11Extremadura 19248+110
12Mérida AD7−19
13Barakaldo8−29
14Real Avilés7+18
15Pontevedra7−18
16Deportivo La Coruña II8−38
17Unionistas de Salamanca8−47
18CD Coria7−55
19UD Ourense7−75
20Arenas Getxo7−132

The competition's standings before kick-off.