Ponferradina v Real Avilés prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ponferradina 0–2 Real Avilés PONFERRADINA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ponferradina win~~57%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.037

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.960

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ponferradina win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ponferradina 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–19
1′KICK-OFF Ponferradina v Real Avilés
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Artetxe · Real Avilés
27′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Artetxe · Real Avilés
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' C. Montes · Real Avilés
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' D. Andujar · Ponferradina
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Neskes · Real Avilés
45′SECOND HALF Ponferradina 0–0 Real Avilés
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ponferradina · On: J. de Leon · Off: A. Molina
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ponferradina · On: E. Undabarrena · Off: D. Andujar
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' A. Jelbat · Ponferradina
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Real Avilés · On: I. Munoz · Off: Osky
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' B. Valle · Ponferradina
59′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Artetxe · Real Avilés
59′🟨 YELLOW · 29' C. Montes · Real Avilés
59′🟨 YELLOW · 33' D. Andujar · Ponferradina
59′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Neskes · Real Avilés
59′🟨 YELLOW · 49' A. Jelbat · Ponferradina
59′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ponferradina · On: J. de Leon · Off: A. Molina
59′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ponferradina · On: E. Undabarrena · Off: D. Andujar
59′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Real Avilés · On: I. Munoz · Off: Osky
59′🟨 YELLOW · 52' B. Valle · Ponferradina
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ponferradina · On: S. Faye · Off: O. Vacas
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ponferradina 0–1 Real Avilés
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ponferradina 0–1 Real Avilés · A. Santamaria
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Avilés · On: I. Alday · Off: J. Sillero
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ponferradina · On: Slavy · Off: Koke
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ponferradina · On: Slavy · Off: Koke
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Avilés · On: J. Mahicas · Off: A. Santamaria
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Avilés · On: D. Liduena Alonso · Off: C. Montes
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ponferradina 0–2 Real Avilés · A. Santamaria
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Ponferradina 0–2 Real Avilés · J. Mahicas
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ponferradina · On: P. Munoz · Off: Q. Bari
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' C. Calderon · Ponferradina
89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Ponferradina
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' M. Artetxe · Real Avilés
89′🟥 RED CARD · 90' M. Artetxe · Real Avilés
FTFULL TIME Ponferradina 0–2 Real Avilés
FTPonferradina 0–2 Real Avilés · Ponferradina win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ponferradina win57%

Draw24%

Real Avilés win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

Line-ups

Ponferradina

Real Avilés

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ponferradina

Real Avilés

7Days since last match9

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ponferradina

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Dominguez

24 Koke

2 D. Andujar

4 A. Jelbat

3 S. Nieto

6 F. San Emeterio

10 B. Valle

7 C. Calderon

8 A. Molina

11 Q. Bari

15 O. Vacas

Coach · Mehdi Nafti

Substitutes

25 · A. Abedzadeh

23 · A. Roig

22 · E. Hernandez

14 · J. L. Aranda

5 · E. Undabarrena

16 · N. Tounkara

18 · J. de Leon

9 · Slavy

17 · J. Chibozo

19 · P. Munoz

21 · S. Faye

12 · U. Sabroso

Real Avilés

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Raton

21 J. Sillero

4 M. Artetxe

23 A. Carmona

20 Osky

5 S. Mayo

17 M. Prendes

7 C. Montes

10 Neskes

14 B. Cayarga

9 A. Santamaria

Coach · Iglesias Yago

Substitutes

13 · M. Suarez Coronas Lastra

15 · I. Alday

18 · Y. Rodriguez

6 · P. Doncel

24 · S. Franco

19 · N. Poquet

2 · J. Mahicas

27 · D. Liduena Alonso

11 · I. Munoz

Our number · ponferradina winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

57% The market51%

Us57%

~~Market~~51%

We make Ponferradina a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ponferradina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ponferradina win	57%	51%	+6
Draw	24%	27%	−4
Real Avilés win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	44%	+7
Both teams to score	50%	47%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	69%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	29%	25%	+4
Ponferradina or draw	81%	79%	+2
Ponferradina clean sheet	40%	–	–
Real Avilés clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 7.1 5.9 2.9 1 11.5 11.2 5.1 2 10.5 9.6 4.5 3 6.3 5.8 2.7 4 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ponferradina down, Real Avilés across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,946 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ponferradina at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Avilés away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Ponferradina, 0.93 for Real Avilés. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PON 3–1 REA · REA 0–3 PON

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

PONFERRADINA

WDLWDW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

REAL AVILÉS

LLWDDL0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Cacereño	7	+3	12
5	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
9	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
10	Real Unión	6	+2	8
11	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
12	Pontevedra	6	0	8
13	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
14	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
15	Mérida AD	6	−2	6
16	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2