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Mirandes v Zamora

Mirandes

1–1Full time

Zamora

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Mirandes 1–1 Zamora MIRANDES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Mirandes win~~41%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mirandes win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mirandes was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
4′Much as we predicted: Mirandes was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–30
25′5′ and it is 1–0: I. Unzueta on the scoresheet for Mirandes. 1–0 · 72–20–9
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 42% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 42% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' A. Verde · Mirandes
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 42% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 42% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Mirandes win: 41% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Mirandes 1–0 Zamora
46′SECOND HALF Mirandes 1–0 Zamora
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mirandes · On: R. Martinez · Off: A. Verde
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Mirandes · On: J. Dorrio · Off: N. Espinosa
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Zamora · On: M. Costa · Off: J. Albert
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Zamora · On: E. Verges · Off: D. Moreno
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mirandes · On: P. Rodriguez · Off: J. Fernandez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mirandes · On: M. Auria · Off: I. Unzueta
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mirandes · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: Riki
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Mirandes 1–1 Zamora · J. Carbonell
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' J. Fernandez · Mirandes
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zamora · On: M. Losada · Off: J. Carbonell
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' M. Aguirregabiria · Mirandes
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Zamora · On: P. Mascaro · Off: A. Hidalgo
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' L. M. Luengo Herrera · Zamora
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' A. Uzkudun · Mirandes
FTFULL TIME Mirandes 1–1 Zamora
FTMirandes 1–1 Zamora · Mirandes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mirandes win41%

Draw28%

Zamora win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Estadio Municipal de Anduva

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mirandes

Formation not confirmed

13 E. Badia

22 M. Aguirregabiria

24 J. Fernandez

21 A. Arambarri

3 H. Arrillaga

16 M. Lozano

6 A. Verde

19 Riki

9 I. Unzueta

10 N. Espinosa

11 A. Uzkudun

Coach · Antxon Muneta

Substitutes

1 · J. Ruiz

5 · P. Rodriguez

8 · R. Martinez

4 · C. Navarro

17 · P. Perez

15 · I. Pedernales

23 · J. Dorrio

7 · D. de la Iglesia

14 · M. Auria

12 · J. Gonzalez

20 · A. Rodrigo Tapia

18 · Rodri

Zamora

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Piedra

5 A. Gorjon

4 U. Dufur

3 L. M. Luengo Herrera

14 D. Moreno

8 Juanje

10 C. Ramos

12 J. Albert

21 A. Hidalgo

17 F. Urzain

7 J. Carbonell

Coach · Oscar Cano

Substitutes

13 · F. Arbol

23 · E. Verges

18 · I. Indias

15 · M. Costa

9 · M. Losada

19 · P. Mascaro

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mirandes

Formation not confirmed

13 E. Badia

22 M. Aguirregabiria

24 J. Fernandez

21 A. Arambarri

3 H. Arrillaga

16 M. Lozano

6 A. Verde

19 Riki

9 I. Unzueta

10 N. Espinosa

11 A. Uzkudun

Coach · Antxon Muneta

Substitutes

1 · J. Ruiz

5 · P. Rodriguez

8 · R. Martinez

4 · C. Navarro

17 · P. Perez

15 · I. Pedernales

23 · J. Dorrio

7 · D. de la Iglesia

14 · M. Auria

12 · J. Gonzalez

20 · A. Rodrigo Tapia

18 · Rodri

Zamora

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Piedra

5 A. Gorjon

4 U. Dufur

3 L. M. Luengo Herrera

14 D. Moreno

8 Juanje

10 C. Ramos

12 J. Albert

21 A. Hidalgo

17 F. Urzain

7 J. Carbonell

Coach · Oscar Cano

Substitutes

13 · F. Arbol

23 · E. Verges

18 · I. Indias

15 · M. Costa

9 · M. Losada

19 · P. Mascaro

Our number · mirandes winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

41% The market46%

Us41%

~~Market~~46%

We make Mirandes a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mirandes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mirandes win	41%	46%	−4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Zamora win	30%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−4
Mirandes or draw	70%	74%	−4
Mirandes clean sheet	35%	–	–
Zamora clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.1 9.7 5.3 1 11.9 13.2 6.8 2.4 2 7.9 8.3 4.4 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mirandes down, Zamora across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,941 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mirandes at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Zamora away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Mirandes, 1.06 for Zamora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

MIRANDES

LWWDWL0–1 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

ZAMORA

DLWLWW1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
4	Cacereño	6	+3	11
5	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
6	Mirandes	6	+2	10
7	Zamora	6	+2	10
8	Racing Ferrol	6	+2	10
9	Real Unión	6	+2	8
10	Deportivo La Coruña II	6	+1	8
11	Pontevedra	6	0	8
12	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
13	Extremadura 1924	6	−1	6
14	Mérida AD	6	−2	6
15	Unionistas de Salamanca	6	−3	6
16	Barakaldo	6	−3	6
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5
18	CD Coria	6	−3	5
19	UD Ourense	6	−8	2
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2