Home › Football › Primera División RFEF - Group 1 › Mirandes v Racing Ferrol

Mirandes v Racing Ferrol

Mirandes

2–0Full time

Racing Ferrol

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Mirandes 2–0 Racing Ferrol MIRANDES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mirandes win~~40%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mirandes win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mirandes 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Mirandes v Racing Ferrol
14′We said Mirandes at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Mirandes 1–0 Racing Ferrol
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Mirandes win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
15′Mirandes ahead on 14′ through R. Martinez. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–8
41′We said Mirandes at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′SECOND HALF Mirandes 1–0 Racing Ferrol
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mirandes · On: M. Aguirregabiria · Off: Rodri
51′HALF-TIME Mirandes 1–0 Racing Ferrol
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Racing Ferrol · On: E. Eto'o · Off: R. Arroyo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Racing Ferrol · On: A. Ramon · Off: S. Garcia
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Mirandes · On: H. Arrillaga · Off: P. Perez
60′We said Mirandes at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Mirandes win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' J. Dorrio · Mirandes
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' R. Martinez · Mirandes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Racing Ferrol · On: R. Blanco · Off: D. Ojeda
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Racing Ferrol · On: V. Esquerdo · Off: J. Bernal
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mirandes · On: A. Uzkudun · Off: I. Unzueta
71′We said Mirandes at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′We said Mirandes at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Mirandes win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' E. Monjonell · Racing Ferrol
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Racing Ferrol · On: U. Ropero · Off: E. Bujan
86′We said Mirandes at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Mirandes · On: D. de la Iglesia · Off: J. Dorrio
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Mirandes · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: C. Navarro
88′We said Mirandes at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Mirandes 2–0 Racing Ferrol
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Mirandes win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
89′J. Gonzalez scores for Mirandes on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' A. Uzkudun · Mirandes
95′2–0 at the end. Our 40% on Mirandes comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Mirandes 2–0 Racing Ferrol
FTMirandes 2–0 Racing Ferrol · Mirandes win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mirandes are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mirandes 40%, draw 30%, Racing Ferrol 30%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Mirandes v Racing FerrolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mirandes win40%

Draw30%

Racing Ferrol win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Municipal de Anduva

RefereeA. Arbaiza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mirandes

Racing Ferrol

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
13	Mirandes	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mirandes winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market48%

Us40%

~~Market~~48%

We make Mirandes a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mirandes v Racing Ferrol~~1.20 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 16~~13 v 3

~~The market · Mirandes win~~48% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mirandes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mirandes win	40%	48%	−8
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Racing Ferrol win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Mirandes or draw	70%	76%	−6
Mirandes clean sheet	37%	–	–
Racing Ferrol clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.7 10.6 5.6 1 12.8 13.5 6.5 2.2 2 8.0 7.8 3.9 3 3.3 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mirandes down, Racing Ferrol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,962 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mirandes at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Racing Ferrol away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Mirandes, 1.00 for Racing Ferrol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MIR 4–1 RAC · RAC 0–0 MIR · RAC 0–2 MIR · MIR 1–2 RAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

MIRANDES

WDWLDL4–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

RACING FERROL

WWLWWW3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	9	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	8	+6	17
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
4	Real Unión	9	+5	13
5	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
6	Athletic Club II	8	+3	12
7	Zamora	8	+2	12
8	Cultural Leonesa	8	+2	12
9	Cacereño	8	+2	12
10	Ponferradina	8	0	12
11	Real Avilés	8	+4	11
12	Pontevedra	8	0	11
13	Mirandes	8	0	11
14	Extremadura 1924	8	+1	10
15	Barakaldo	8	−2	9
16	Deportivo La Coruña II	8	−3	8
17	CD Coria	8	−4	8
18	Unionistas de Salamanca	8	−4	7
19	UD Ourense	8	−10	5
20	Arenas Getxo	8	−17	2