Mérida AD v CD Coria prediction · Primera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mérida ADDrawCD Coria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Mérida AD 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mérida AD are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mérida AD 50%, draw 24%, CD Coria 26%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Mérida AD v CD CoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mérida AD win50%

Draw24%

CD Coria win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:45

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Romano Jose Fouto

RefereeI. de Santisteban Adame

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mérida AD

CD Coria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
16	CD Coria	8	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mérida ad winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market54%

Us50%

~~Market~~54%

We make Mérida AD a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mérida AD v CD Coria~~1.74 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~6 v 16

~~The market · Mérida AD win~~54% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mérida AD win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mérida AD win	50%	54%	−4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
CD Coria win	26%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Mérida AD or draw	74%	78%	−4
Mérida AD clean sheet	31%	–	–
CD Coria clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.9 6.1 3.8 1 9.0 11.3 6.4 2.6 2 8.1 9.4 5.6 2.2 3 4.7 5.5 3.3 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mérida AD down, CD Coria across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,962 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mérida AD at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). CD Coria away: 0.75 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Mérida AD, 1.19 for CD Coria. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CDC 1–1 MER · MER 0–1 CDC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

MÉRIDA AD

LLLWWW3–4 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 4–0

CD CORIA

LDDLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	9	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	8	+6	17
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
4	Extremadura 1924	9	+6	13
5	Real Unión	9	+5	13
6	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
7	Athletic Club II	8	+3	12
8	Zamora	8	+2	12
9	Cultural Leonesa	8	+2	12
10	Cacereño	8	+2	12
11	Ponferradina	8	0	12
12	Real Avilés	8	+4	11
13	Pontevedra	8	0	11
14	Mirandes	8	0	11
15	Barakaldo	8	−2	9
16	CD Coria	8	−4	8
17	Deportivo La Coruña II	9	−8	8
18	Unionistas de Salamanca	8	−4	7
19	UD Ourense	8	−10	5
20	Arenas Getxo	8	−17	2