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Lugo v UD Logroñés

Lugo

3–1Full time

UD Logroñés

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · MON 12 OCT · Estadio Anxo Carro

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:08

Lugo 3–1 UD Logroñés UD LOGROÑÉS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UD Logroñés win~~36%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.588

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 49 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UD Logroñés win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lugo 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Lugo v UD Logroñés
8′Little has changed for our model: Lugo 36% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–29–35
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Lugo 1–0 UD Logroñés
8′⚽ GOAL · 9' Lugo 1–0 UD Logroñés · Chiqui
10′Chiqui scores for Lugo on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 14% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 36% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 14% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 36% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 14% now
13′We said Lugo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
13′🟨 YELLOW · 14' K. Hermoso · Lugo
18′🟥 RED CARD · 18' Lugo
19′🟥 RED CARD · 19' M. Pedreno · UD Logroñés
20′UD Logroñés are down to ten from 19′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 66–22–12
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' M. A. Ramirez Carrasco · UD Logroñés
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' UD Logroñés win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lugo 2–0 UD Logroñés · A. Palma
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' P. Moreno · Lugo
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Lugo 2–1 UD Logroñés · Chiqui
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Lugo 2–1 UD Logroñés · A. Morales
45′SECOND HALF Lugo 2–1 UD Logroñés
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lugo · On: H. Pascual · Off: K. Hermoso
47′🟥 RED CARD · 47' UD Logroñés
47′🟥 RED CARD · 47' A. Costa · Lugo
47′⚽ GOAL · 9' Lugo 2–1 UD Logroñés · Chiqui (assist A. Palma)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 14' K. Hermoso · Lugo
47′🟥 RED CARD · 19' M. Pedreno · UD Logroñés
47′🟨 YELLOW · 28' M. A. Ramirez Carrasco · UD Logroñés
47′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lugo 2–1 UD Logroñés · Chiqui (assist R. Lucero)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 44' P. Moreno · Lugo
47′⚽ GOAL · 45' Lugo 2–1 UD Logroñés · A. Morales
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' A. Alvarez · UD Logroñés
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' A. Alvarez · UD Logroñés
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lugo · On: S. Perez · Off: P. Haro
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lugo · On: A. Godoy · Off: M. Dauda
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' UD Logroñés · On: M. Baselga · Off: B. Rosas Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' UD Logroñés · On: D. Amigo · Off: M. A. Ramirez Carrasco Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Lugo 3–1 UD Logroñés · A. Morales
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Lugo 3–1 UD Logroñés · A. Godoy
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Lugo · On: T. Morchiladze · Off: Chiqui
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' UD Logroñés · On: M. Zabala · Off: L. Issman
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' UD Logroñés · On: Q. Rivero · Off: M. Mari Sanchez
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' M. Zabala · UD Logroñés
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' UD Logroñés · On: P. Ba · Off: S. Camacho
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lugo · On: K. Presa · Off: P. Parrilla
FTFULL TIME Lugo 3–1 UD Logroñés
FTLugo 3–1 UD Logroñés · UD Logroñés win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

Lugo win36%

Draw29%

UD Logroñés win36%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:30

VenueEstadio Anxo Carro

Line-ups

Lugo

UD Logroñés

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lugo

UD Logroñés

10Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lugo

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Martinez

19 R. Lucero

18 K. Hermoso

5 P. Moreno

3 P. Haro

15 P. Parrilla

20 A. Ulloa

16 A. Palma

11 M. Dauda

17 Chiqui

9 A. Costa

Coach · Fernandez Borja

Substitutes

25 · F. Embadje

13 · J. Candal

24 · S. Perez

23 · H. Pascual

2 · A. N. Sanchez Martinez

6 · K. Presa

7 · T. Morchiladze

8 · A. Perera

21 · G. Berzal

14 · A. Gallar

10 · A. Godoy

22 · M. Munoz

UD Logroñés

Formation not confirmed

13 F. Sobron

14 D. Navarro

5 A. Alvarez

15 M. Pedreno

3 S. Camacho

8 M. Mari Sanchez

17 L. Issman

21 I. Santana

23 M. A. Ramirez Carrasco

20 A. Morales

9 B. Rosas

Coach · Unai Mendia

Substitutes

1 · T. Konate

4 · E. Cabetas

2 · J. Val

10 · Q. Rivero

16 · M. Zabala

11 · M. Baselga

19 · I. Asenjo

7 · D. Amigo

18 · P. Ba

27 · P. Brito

Our number · ud logroñés winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make UD Logroñés a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ud logroñés win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lugo win	36%	37%	−2
Draw	29%	30%	−1
UD Logroñés win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Lugo or draw	64%	67%	−3
Lugo clean sheet	31%	–	–
UD Logroñés clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.9 10.6 6.6 2.7 1 10.6 13.3 7.6 3.1 2 6.5 7.6 4.5 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lugo down, UD Logroñés across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,949 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Lugo at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). UD Logroñés away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Lugo, 1.20 for UD Logroñés. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

LUGO

WDWWWW3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

UD LOGROÑÉS

WWWDWW2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 5–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Athletic Club II	7	+4	12
5	Cacereño	7	+3	12
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Ponferradina	7	0	11
9	Real Unión	7	+2	9
10	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
11	Mérida AD	7	−1	9
12	Real Avilés	7	+1	8
13	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
14	Pontevedra	7	−1	8
15	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
17	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2