Lugo v Deportivo La Coruña II prediction · Primera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Lugo 3–0 Deportivo La Coruña II LUGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lugo win~~42%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lugo win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lugo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
1′KICK-OFF Lugo v Deportivo La Coruña II
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Y. Gonzalez · Deportivo La Coruña II
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' A. Ulloa · Lugo
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' F. Fons · Deportivo La Coruña II
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Lugo win 35%)
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' K. Sanchez · Deportivo La Coruña II
40′Chiqui scores for Lugo on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
40′We published Lugo at 42%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lugo 1–0 Deportivo La Coruña II · Chiqui
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Lugo win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Lugo win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 18%)
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–5
45′HALF-TIME Lugo 1–0 Deportivo La Coruña II
46′SECOND HALF Lugo 1–0 Deportivo La Coruña II
56′We published Lugo at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' A. Gallar · Lugo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: J. San Jose · Off: Y. Gonzalez
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: A. Mardones · Off: F. Fons
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: A. Fraga Mesia · Off: N. Carrillo
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Lugo win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lugo · On: K. Presa · Off: A. Gallar
69′We published Lugo at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lugo · On: A. Godoy · Off: A. Palma
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lugo · On: G. Berzal · Off: M. Dauda
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' E. Teijo · Deportivo La Coruña II
77′77′: A. Godoy on the scoresheet for Lugo, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We published Lugo at 42%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Lugo 2–0 Deportivo La Coruña II · A. Godoy
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Lugo win: 42% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We published Lugo at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' P. Moreno · Lugo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lugo · On: S. Perez · Off: Chiqui
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lugo · On: A. Perera · Off: A. Ulloa
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: M. Ferreiro · Off: A. Guerrero
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: D. Dominguez · Off: M. Ochoa
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' P. Haro · Lugo
96′Lugo ahead on 90′ through P. Haro. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Lugo 3–0 Deportivo La Coruña II · P. Haro
97′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Lugo 3–0 Deportivo La Coruña II
FTLugo 3–0 Deportivo La Coruña II · Lugo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lugo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lugo 42%, draw 30%, Deportivo La Coruña II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Lugo v Deportivo La Coruña IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lugo win42%

Draw30%

Deportivo La Coruña II win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Anxo Carro

Line-ups

Lugo

Deportivo La Coruña II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lugo

Deportivo La Coruña II

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lugo

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Martinez

19 R. Lucero

18 K. Hermoso

5 P. Moreno

3 P. Haro

15 P. Parrilla

20 A. Ulloa

16 A. Palma

14 A. Gallar

17 Chiqui

11 M. Dauda

Coach · Fernandez Borja

Substitutes

25 · F. Embadje

13 · J. Candal

24 · S. Perez

23 · H. Pascual

2 · A. N. Sanchez Martinez

6 · K. Presa

7 · T. Morchiladze

8 · A. Perera

21 · G. Berzal

10 · A. Godoy

22 · M. Munoz

Deportivo La Coruña II

Formation not confirmed

13 H. Rios

2 E. Teijo

15 F. Fons

4 S. Fernandez

30 X. Campos

6 N. Carrillo

22 Y. Gonzalez

8 R. Lopez

11 A. Guerrero

9 M. Ochoa

10 K. Sanchez

Coach · Manuel Pablo

Substitutes

26 · R. Seoane

12 · D. Vergara

3 · A. Mardones

17 · J. San Jose

7 · M. Ferreiro

16 · D. Estevez

28 · M. Valeiro

14 · D. Dominguez

21 · I. Vidal Maria

20 · J. Barbosa

25 · A. Fraga Mesia

19 · I. Gil

Our number · lugo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market52%

Us42%

~~Market~~52%

We make Lugo a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lugo v Deportivo La Coruña II~~1.24 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 8~~1 v 14

~~The market · Lugo win~~52% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lugo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lugo win	42%	52%	−10
Draw	30%	26%	+4
Deportivo La Coruña II win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	64%	72%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	30%	−12
Lugo or draw	72%	78%	−6
Lugo clean sheet	39%	–	–
Deportivo La Coruña II clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 11.9 10.3 5.1 1 13.5 13.4 6.1 2 8.6 8.0 3.8 3 3.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lugo down, Deportivo La Coruña II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,951 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Lugo at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo La Coruña II away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Lugo, 0.94 for Deportivo La Coruña II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 4 Sept

LUGO

DWWWWW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA II

DWDWLL1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	7	+8	19
2	UD Logroñés	7	+6	16
3	Racing Ferrol	7	+3	13
4	Athletic Club II	7	+4	12
5	Cacereño	7	+3	12
6	Mirandes	7	+2	11
7	Zamora	7	+2	11
8	Cultural Leonesa	7	+2	11
9	Ponferradina	7	0	11
10	Real Unión	7	+2	9
11	Extremadura 1924	7	+1	9
12	Mérida AD	7	−1	9
13	Real Avilés	7	+1	8
14	Deportivo La Coruña II	7	0	8
15	Pontevedra	7	−1	8
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	7	−3	7
17	Barakaldo	7	−4	6
18	CD Coria	7	−5	5
19	UD Ourense	7	−7	5
20	Arenas Getxo	7	−13	2