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Deportivo La Coruña II v Racing Ferrol

Deportivo La Coruña II

0–1Full time

Racing Ferrol

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Deportivo La Coruña II 0–1 Racing Ferrol DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo La Coruña II win~~42%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.767

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.550

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo La Coruña II win at 42%.
3′KICK-OFF Deportivo La Coruña II v Racing Ferrol
5′Much as we predicted: Deportivo La Coruña II was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' R. Blanco · Racing Ferrol
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Deportivo La Coruña II 0–1 Racing Ferrol
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Deportivo La Coruña II 0–1 Racing Ferrol · U. Ropero
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo La Coruña II 0–1 Racing Ferrol
47′Racing Ferrol ahead on 44′ through U. Ropero. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' F. Gonzalez · Racing Ferrol
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Racing Ferrol · On: R. Arroyo · Off: U. Ropero
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Racing Ferrol · On: J. Bernal · Off: V. Esquerdo
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' A. Ramon · Racing Ferrol
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Racing Ferrol win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 9%)
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' D. Ojeda · Racing Ferrol
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: D. Dominguez · Off: J. Barbosa
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Racing Ferrol · On: R. Alcaina · Off: E. Eto'o
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Racing Ferrol
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' A. Ramon · Racing Ferrol
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' A. Ramon · Racing Ferrol
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: P. Garcia · Off: A. Mardones
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: D. Martinez · Off: A. Fraga Mesia
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Ferrol · On: S. Garcia · Off: R. Blanco
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Ferrol · On: S. Garcia · Off: R. Blanco
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Racing Ferrol · On: D. Castro · Off: D. Ojeda
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: D. Estevez · Off: A. Guerrero
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: L. Altieri de Leon · Off: J. San Jose
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' E. Teijo · Deportivo La Coruña II
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' S. Fernandez · Deportivo La Coruña II
FTFULL TIME Deportivo La Coruña II 0–1 Racing Ferrol
FTDeportivo La Coruña II 0–1 Racing Ferrol · Deportivo La Coruña II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportivo La Coruña II win42%

Draw29%

Racing Ferrol win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Deportivo La Coruña II

Formation not confirmed

13 H. Rios

3 A. Mardones

4 S. Fernandez

2 E. Teijo

21 I. Vidal Maria

17 J. San Jose

8 R. Lopez

25 A. Fraga Mesia

11 A. Guerrero

19 I. Gil

20 J. Barbosa

Coach · Manuel Pablo

Substitutes

1 · R. Seoane

12 · D. Vergara

27 · P. Garcia

15 · F. Fons

30 · X. Campos

22 · Y. Gonzalez

16 · D. Estevez

14 · D. Dominguez

33 · L. Altieri de Leon

35 · D. Martinez

Racing Ferrol

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Diaz

2 Miguel

5 E. Monjonell

4 G. Novoa

17 A. Ramon

6 F. Gonzalez

8 V. Esquerdo

16 R. Blanco

9 U. Ropero

10 D. Ojeda

18 E. Eto'o

Coach · Javi Vazquez

Substitutes

13 · C. G. Fernandez

3 · E. Pujol

22 · S. Garcia

15 · D. Castro

21 · A. Garcia

14 · J. Bernal

23 · S. Djanbou

20 · R. Alcaina

19 · R. Arroyo

11 · E. Bujan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo La Coruña II

Formation not confirmed

13 H. Rios

3 A. Mardones

4 S. Fernandez

2 E. Teijo

21 I. Vidal Maria

17 J. San Jose

8 R. Lopez

25 A. Fraga Mesia

11 A. Guerrero

19 I. Gil

20 J. Barbosa

Coach · Manuel Pablo

Substitutes

1 · R. Seoane

12 · D. Vergara

27 · P. Garcia

15 · F. Fons

30 · X. Campos

22 · Y. Gonzalez

16 · D. Estevez

14 · D. Dominguez

33 · L. Altieri de Leon

35 · D. Martinez

Racing Ferrol

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Diaz

2 Miguel

5 E. Monjonell

4 G. Novoa

17 A. Ramon

6 F. Gonzalez

8 V. Esquerdo

16 R. Blanco

9 U. Ropero

10 D. Ojeda

18 E. Eto'o

Coach · Javi Vazquez

Substitutes

13 · C. G. Fernandez

3 · E. Pujol

22 · S. Garcia

15 · D. Castro

21 · A. Garcia

14 · J. Bernal

23 · S. Djanbou

20 · R. Alcaina

19 · R. Arroyo

11 · E. Bujan

Our number · deportivo la coruña ii winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

42% The market31%

Us42%

~~Market~~31%

We make Deportivo La Coruña II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo La Coruña II win	42%	31%	+11
Draw	29%	29%	0
Racing Ferrol win	29%	39%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Deportivo La Coruña II or draw	71%	61%	+11
Deportivo La Coruña II clean sheet	38%	–	–
Racing Ferrol clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.2 10.1 5.2 1 12.9 13.3 6.4 2.1 2 8.3 8.1 4.0 3 3.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo La Coruña II down, Racing Ferrol across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,941 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Deportivo La Coruña II at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Racing Ferrol away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Deportivo La Coruña II, 0.99 for Racing Ferrol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1

DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA II

LDWDWL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

RACING FERROL

DLWWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	UD Logroñés	6	+8	16
2	Lugo	6	+6	16
3	Athletic Club II	6	+4	11
4	Cacereño	6	+3	11
5	Ponferradina	6	+2	11
6	Mirandes	6	+2	10
7	Zamora	6	+2	10
8	Racing Ferrol	6	+2	10
9	Real Unión	6	+2	8
10	Deportivo La Coruña II	6	+1	8
11	Pontevedra	6	0	8
12	Cultural Leonesa	6	−1	8
13	Extremadura 1924	6	−1	6
14	Mérida AD	6	−2	6
15	Unionistas de Salamanca	6	−3	6
16	Barakaldo	6	−3	6
17	Real Avilés	6	−1	5
18	CD Coria	6	−3	5
19	UD Ourense	6	−8	2
20	Arenas Getxo	6	−10	2