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Deportivo La Coruña II v Extremadura 1924

Deportivo La Coruña II

0–5Full time

Extremadura 1924

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Deportivo La Coruña II 0–5 Extremadura 1924 DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo La Coruña II win~~41%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.722

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo La Coruña II win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo La Coruña II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo La Coruña II v Extremadura 1924
8′8′: Dieguito on the scoresheet for Extremadura 1924, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–22–60
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Deportivo La Coruña II 0–1 Extremadura 1924 · Dieguito
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Extremadura 1924 win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Deportivo La Coruña II win 40%)
9′We said Deportivo La Coruña II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–60
23′We said Deportivo La Coruña II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
34′Extremadura 1924 ahead on 34′ through M. Gonzalez. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Deportivo La Coruña II 0–2 Extremadura 1924 · M. Gonzalez
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 41% at kick-off, 3% now
35′We said Deportivo La Coruña II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
44′Rodri scores for Extremadura 1924 on 44′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
44′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–2–98
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Deportivo La Coruña II 0–3 Extremadura 1924 · Rodri
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Deportivo La Coruña II win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo La Coruña II 0–3 Extremadura 1924
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: M. Ferreiro · Off: F. Fons
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: M. Serrano · Off: J. San Jose
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo La Coruña II 0–3 Extremadura 1924
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' S. Fernandez · Deportivo La Coruña II
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: Y. Gonzalez · Off: D. Estevez
52′51′: Rodri on the scoresheet for Extremadura 1924, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
52′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Deportivo La Coruña II 0–4 Extremadura 1924 · Rodri
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Extremadura 1924 · On: Y. Ballesteros · Off: L. Morcillo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Extremadura 1924 · On: A. Gothler · Off: Rodri
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' D. Espejo · Extremadura 1924
66′Extremadura 1924 ahead on 66′ through S. Molina. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
66′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Deportivo La Coruña II 0–5 Extremadura 1924 · S. Molina
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Extremadura 1924 · On: C. Cordero · Off: D. Espejo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Extremadura 1924 · On: I. Burgos · Off: Kike
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: M. Valeiro · Off: J. Barbosa
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Extremadura 1924 · On: E. Sanchez · Off: A. Macias
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Deportivo La Coruña II · On: I. Gil · Off: M. Ochoa
FTFULL TIME Deportivo La Coruña II 0–5 Extremadura 1924
FTDeportivo La Coruña II 0–5 Extremadura 1924 · Deportivo La Coruña II win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo La Coruña II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo La Coruña II 41%, draw 28%, Extremadura 1924 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo La Coruña II v Extremadura 1924Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo La Coruña II win41%

Draw28%

Extremadura 1924 win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Municipal de Riazor

RefereeD. Lopez Jimenez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo La Coruña II

Extremadura 1924

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Extremadura 1924	8	+1	10
16	Deportivo La Coruña II	8	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo la coruña ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market34%

Us41%

~~Market~~34%

We make Deportivo La Coruña II a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo La Coruña II v Extremadura 1924~~1.32 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~16 v 14

~~The market · Deportivo La Coruña II win~~34% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo La Coruña II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo La Coruña II win	41%	34%	+7
Draw	28%	28%	0
Extremadura 1924 win	31%	38%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Deportivo La Coruña II or draw	69%	62%	+7
Deportivo La Coruña II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Extremadura 1924 clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.5 9.4 5.5 2.1 1 11.2 13.1 7.0 2.6 2 7.6 8.3 4.6 3 3.4 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo La Coruña II down, Extremadura 1924 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,962 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Deportivo La Coruña II at home: 1.25 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Extremadura 1924 away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Deportivo La Coruña II, 1.11 for Extremadura 1924. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 this season · since 11 Sept

DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA II

WDWLLL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3

EXTREMADURA 1924

LLLWWD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lugo	9	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	8	+6	17
3	Racing Ferrol	8	+4	16
4	Real Unión	9	+5	13
5	Mérida AD	8	+3	12
6	Athletic Club II	8	+3	12
7	Zamora	8	+2	12
8	Cultural Leonesa	8	+2	12
9	Cacereño	8	+2	12
10	Ponferradina	8	0	12
11	Real Avilés	8	+4	11
12	Pontevedra	8	0	11
13	Mirandes	8	0	11
14	Extremadura 1924	8	+1	10
15	Barakaldo	8	−2	9
16	Deportivo La Coruña II	8	−3	8
17	CD Coria	8	−4	8
18	Unionistas de Salamanca	8	−4	7
19	UD Ourense	8	−10	5
20	Arenas Getxo	8	−17	2